IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v55y2024i2p181-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of deviations from soybean product crushing estimates on return and risk

Author

Listed:
  • Hussein Abdoh
  • Michael Chitavi

Abstract

This study explores how differences in market yields of soymeal and soyoil, as derived from market prices compared to those obtained through the physical process of crushing soybeans, impact the returns and volatilities of these commodities. Positive (negative) deviations are associated with negative (positive) changes in return. Additionally, these deviations positively correlate with return volatility, suggesting that variations from the expected yields lead to price shifts and heightened return volatility. In summary, deviations from the crushing estimates significantly shape the modeling of soybean commodity returns and volatilities, with implications for understanding returns, hedging ratios, and portfolio return variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hussein Abdoh & Michael Chitavi, 2024. "The impact of deviations from soybean product crushing estimates on return and risk," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 181-199, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:55:y:2024:i:2:p:181-199
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12813
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.12813?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-26, August.
    4. Hervé Ott, 2014. "Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 225-252, March.
    5. Ana I. Sanjuán-López & Philip J. Dawson, 2017. "Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 822-838, September.
    6. Kang, Wenjin & Tang, Ke & Wang, Ningli, 2023. "Financialization of commodity markets ten years later," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    7. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC84138, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    9. Matteo Manera, Marcella Nicolini, and Ilaria Vignati, 2013. "Financial Speculation in Energy and Agriculture Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    10. Qingfeng Wilson Liu & Hui He Sono, 2016. "Empirical Properties, Information Flow, and Trading Strategies of China's Soybean Crush Spread," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(11), pages 1057-1075, November.
    11. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    14. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.
    15. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan, 2020. "Financialization of agricultural commodities: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 381-389.
    16. Main, Scott & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Smith, Aaron, 2018. "Financialization and the returns to commodity investments," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 22-28.
    17. P. J. Dawson & A. L. Tiffin & B. White, 2000. "Optimal Hedging Ratios for Wheat and Barley at the LIFFE: A GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 147-161, May.
    18. David P. Simon, 1999. "The soybean crush spread: Empirical evidence and trading strategies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 271-289, May.
    19. Thomas A. P. de Boer & Cornelis Gardebroek & Joost M. E. Pennings & Andres Trujillo‐Barrera, 2022. "Intraday liquidity in soybean complex futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1189-1211, July.
    20. Jun Ma & Andrew Vivian & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "What Drives Commodity Returns? Market, Sector or Idiosyncratic Factors?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 311-330, April.
    21. Saleem, Kashif, 2009. "International linkage of the Russian market and the Russian financial crisis: A multivariate GARCH analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 243-256, September.
    22. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Robert L. Johnson & Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin & Mary E. Gerlow, 1991. "The soybean complex spread: An examination of market efficiency from the viewpoint of a production process," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 25-37, February.
    24. Dominic Rechner & Geoffrey Poitras, 1993. "Putting on the crush: Day trading the soybean complex spread," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 61-75, February.
    25. Christopher L. Gilbert & Simone Pfuderer, 2014. "The Role of Index Trading in Price Formation in the Grains and Oilseeds Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 303-322, June.
    26. Jiahui Ying & Yu Chen & Jeffrey H Dorfman, 2019. "Flexible Tests for USDA Report Announcement Effects in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1228-1246.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Xinquan & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Gohin, Alexandre & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Debie, Philippe, 2023. "Microstructure and high-frequency price discovery in the soybean complex," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    2. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    3. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    4. Vollmer, Teresa & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2020. "The Optimal Wheat Futures Hedge at the Euronext Paris from a Farmer’s Perspective," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(01), March.
    5. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zheng, Dandan & Du, Min, 2021. "The effects of commodity financialization on commodity market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Zaremba, Adam, 2015. "Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Stavros Degiannakis & Christos Floros, 2010. "Hedge Ratios in South African Stock Index Futures," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(3), pages 285-304, December.
    8. Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
    9. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    10. Alexander, Carol & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sumawong, Anannit, 2013. "The (de)merits of minimum-variance hedging: Application to the crack spread," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 698-707.
    11. Fishe, Raymond P.H. & Smith, Aaron, 2019. "Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Jiarong Tian, 2019. "Modeling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for the USA, the UK, and China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-24, April.
    13. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    14. Terrance Grieb & Nam Hoang, 2019. "The Effects of Hedging and Speculation on Cash-Futures Basis: Results from U.S. Wheat Markets," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 1-15, August.
    15. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
    16. Sisi Qin & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "Cross‐border and cross‐commodity volatility spillover effects of Chinese soybean futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1836-1852, December.
    17. Ana I. Sanjuán-López & Philip J. Dawson, 2017. "Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 822-838, September.
    18. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 345-365, June.
    19. Wenming Shi & Kevin X. Li & Zhongzhi Yang & Ganggang Wang, 2017. "Time-varying copula models in the shipping derivatives market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1039-1058, November.
    20. K. Abhaya Kumar & Prakash Pinto & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & K. G. Ramesh, 2021. "Can Crude Oil Futures be the Good Hedging Tool for Tyre Equities? Evidence from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 523-537.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:55:y:2024:i:2:p:181-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.