IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v43y2023i12p1836-1852.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cross‐border and cross‐commodity volatility spillover effects of Chinese soybean futures

Author

Listed:
  • Sisi Qin
  • Wee‐Yeap Lau

Abstract

This study examines the volatility spillover between the US and China's soybean futures markets, and between China's soybean, soybean oil, and meal futures markets. A synchronization technique is used to overcome the bias from differences in the closing time of two exchanges. On the basis of BEKK‐GARCH and DCC‐GARCH on the data from January 2010 to April 2023, our results indicate that: First, there is a one‐way spillover from the US to China's No.1 soybean futures and a two‐way spillover between the US and No.2 soybean futures. Second, after 2018, the volatility spillovers of No.1 soybean futures declined, while that of No.2 increased significantly. Third, the dynamic conditional correlations confirmed our results that the spillover between No.2 soybean and soymeal, and between No.2 soybean and soyoil futures increased significantly. Our findings demonstrate the leading role of US soybeans in cross‐border trading and the increasing role of No.2 soybeans in cross‐country and cross‐commodity spillover.

Suggested Citation

  • Sisi Qin & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "Cross‐border and cross‐commodity volatility spillover effects of Chinese soybean futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1836-1852, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:12:p:1836-1852
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22458
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22458?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Bruce Jianhe Liu & Yubin Wang & Jingjing Wang & Xin Wu & Shu Zhang, 2015. "Is China the price taker in soybean futures?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 389-404, September.
    3. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    4. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    5. Qingfeng Wilson Liu & Hui He Sono, 2016. "Empirical Properties, Information Flow, and Trading Strategies of China's Soybean Crush Spread," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(11), pages 1057-1075, November.
    6. John Galbraith & Aman Ullah & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2002. "Estimation Of The Vector Moving Average Model By Vector Autoregression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 205-219.
    7. LIN, Xuegui, 2018. "Analysis of Volatility Spillover Effect of Soybean Price between Domestic and International Markets," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 10(01), January.
    8. Bruce Jianhe Liu & Yubin Wang & Jingjing Wang & Xin Wu & Shu Zhang, 2015. "Is China the price taker in soybean futures?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(3), pages 389-404, September.
    9. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2011. "Information transmission in informationally linked markets: Evidence from US and Chinese commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 778-795, September.
    10. David P. Simon, 1999. "The soybean crush spread: Empirical evidence and trading strategies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 271-289, May.
    11. Chao Li & Dermot J. Hayes, 2017. "Price Discovery on the International Soybean Futures Markets: A Threshold Co‐Integration Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 52-70, January.
    12. Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai K & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2003. "Information Flows between the U.S. and China Commodity Futures Trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 267-285, November.
    13. Huayun Jiang & Neda Todorova & Eduardo Roca & Jen-Je Su, 2017. "Dynamics of volatility transmission between the U.S. and the Chinese agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(34), pages 3435-3452, July.
    14. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 96-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Yao & Karali, Berna, 2022. "How far is too far for volatility transmission?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    2. Yangmin Ke & Chongguang Li & Andrew M. McKenzie & Ping Liu, 2019. "Risk Transmission between Chinese and U.S. Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets—A CoVaR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Gross, Christian & Souza, Waldemar, 2019. "The role of emerging economies in the global price formation process of commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. coffee markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 203-215.
    4. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    5. Manuel A. Hernandez & Shahidur Rashid & Solomon Lemma & Tadesse Kuma, 2017. "Market Institutions and Price Relationships: The Case of Coffee in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 683-704.
    6. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    7. Arnade, Carlos & Cooke, Bryce & Gale, Fred, 2017. "Agricultural price transmission: China relationships with world commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 28-40.
    8. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.
    9. Hussein Abdoh & Michael Chitavi, 2024. "The impact of deviations from soybean product crushing estimates on return and risk," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 181-199, March.
    10. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Wang, Dan, 2018. "Systemic importance analysis of chinese financial institutions based on volatility spillover network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 19-30.
    11. Xin Hu & Bo Zhu & Bokai Zhang & Lidan Zeng, 2024. "Extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets in crises: A dependence-switching copula-CoVaR model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-34, March.
    12. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Prabina Rajib, 2023. "The impact of Sino–US trade war on price discovery of soybean: A double‐edged sword?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 858-879, July.
    13. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    14. Nakatani, Tomoaki & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2008. "Positivity constraints on the conditional variances in the family of conditional correlation GARCH models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 88-95, June.
    15. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    16. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
    17. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    18. Ferhat Camlica & Didem Gunes & Etkin Ozen, 2017. "A Financial Connectedness Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 1719, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.
    20. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Microeconomics Working Papers 22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:43:y:2023:i:12:p:1836-1852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.