Estimation Of The Vector Moving Average Model By Vector Autoregression
We examine a simple estimator for the multivariate moving average model based on vector autoregressive approximation. In finite samples the estimator has a bias which is low where roots of the characteristic equation are well away from the unit circle, and more substantial where one or more roots have modulus near unity. We show that the representation estimated by this multivariate technique is consistent and asymptotically invertible. This estimator has significant computational advantages over Maximum Likelihood, and more importantly may be more robust than ML to mis-specification of the vector moving average model. The estimation method is applied to a VMA model of wholesale and retail inventories, using Canadian data on inventory investment, and allows us to examine the propagation of shocks between the two classes of inventory.
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Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Lewis, Richard & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1985. "Prediction of multivariate time series by autoregressive model fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 393-411, June.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1988. "Asymptotic Distribution of the Moving Average Coefficients of an Estimated Vector Autoregressive Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 77-85, April.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Poskitt, D.S., 1991. "Estimating Orthogonal Impulse Responses via Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 487-496, December.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:4:p:487-96 is not listed on IDEAS
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