IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cqe/wpaper/5116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Christian Gross
  • Waldemar Souza

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the Brazilian futures exchange, BM&F Bovespa, in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee. Using a multivariate GARCH model we find bi-directional information transmission in terms of spillover effects between the BM&F Bovespa futures contract for Arabica coffee and the Coffee C' futures contract traded at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York. Moreover, our empirical results indicate that the influence of the BM&F Bovespa futures market on the ICE futures market increased during the 2010-2012 boom in co ee prices, suggesting a greater role of local information for volatility dynamics during this period. We also show that local Brazilian spot markets incorporate information from both the domestic and the foreign futures market. Taken together, our findings highlight the great relevance of the BM&F Bovespa futures market in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Christian Gross & Waldemar Souza, 2016. "The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets," CQE Working Papers 5116, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/sites/cqe/files/CQE_Paper/CQE_WP_51_2016.pdf
    File Function: Version of July 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Ciner, Cetin, 1997. "International transmission on information in corn futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 175-187, October.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    5. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    7. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    8. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "A test for multivariate ARCH effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 411-417.
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Seon, Junghoon, 2005. "The Asian financial crisis: The role of derivative securities trading and foreign investors in Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 607-630, June.
    10. Philip Garcia & Dwight R. Sanders, 1996. "Ex ante basis risk in the live hog futures contract: Has hedgers' risk increased?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 421-440, June.
    11. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    12. Avino, Davide & Lazar, Emese & Varotto, Simone, 2015. "Time varying price discovery," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 18-21.
    13. Tse, Yiuman & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1997. "Information shares in international oil futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-56.
    14. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2013. "Exogenous Shocks and Information Transmission in Global Copper Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 724-751, August.
    15. Donald Lien & Mei Zhang, 2008. "A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 39-69, March.
    16. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.
    17. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    18. Bae, Kee-Hong & Ozoguz, Arzu & Tan, Hongping & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2012. "Do foreigners facilitate information transmission in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 209-227.
    19. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    20. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio, 2016. "Capital controls in Brazil: Effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-187.
    21. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1994. "Evaluating Futures Exchanges in Liberalising Economies," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 149-164, June.
    22. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    25. Renhai Hua & Baizhu Chen, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1275-1287.
    26. Webb, Robert I. & Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Han, Joongho, 2016. "The price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 80-98.
    27. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    28. Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-1455, December.
    29. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    30. Hung‐Gay Fung & Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu & Yiuman Tse, 2010. "The information flow and market efficiency between the U.S. and Chinese aluminum and copper futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 1192-1209, December.
    31. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    32. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2011. "Information transmission in informationally linked markets: Evidence from US and Chinese commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 778-795, September.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    34. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2017. "Dynamics Between North American And European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil And Financialization," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 57-76, January.
    35. Liyan Han & Rong Liang & Ke Tang, 2013. "Cross-market soybean futures price discovery: does the Dalian Commodity Exchange affect the Chicago Board of Trade?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 613-626, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vollmer, Teresa & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2019. "The influence of Brazilian exports on price transmission processes in the coffee sector: a Markov-switching approach," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 291497, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    2. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    3. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Prabina Rajib, 2023. "The impact of Sino–US trade war on price discovery of soybean: A double‐edged sword?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 858-879, July.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    3. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    5. Jian Yang & Titus Awokuse, 2003. "Asset storability and hedging effectiveness in commodity futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 487-491.
    6. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    7. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2021. "Information transmission under increasing political tensions—Evidence from the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887–1896," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 226-244, February.
    8. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    9. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    10. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2017. "Dynamics Between North American And European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil And Financialization," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 57-76, January.
    11. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
    12. Jing Chen & David G. McMillan & Mike Buckle, 2018. "Information Transmission across European Equity Markets During Crisis Periods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 770-788, December.
    13. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. McLeod, Roger C.D. & Haughton, Andre Yone, 2018. "The value of the US dollar and its impact on oil prices: Evidence from a non-linear asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 61-69.
    15. de Jesus, Diego Pitta & Lenin Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio, 2020. "The non-linear relationship between oil prices and stock prices: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Chris Motengwe & Angel Pardo, 2016. "Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 636-653, December.
    17. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2009. "Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 664-673.
    18. Wilton Bernardino & João B. Amaral & Nelson L. Paes & Raydonal Ospina & José L. Távora, 2022. "A statistical investigation of a stock valuation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-25, August.
    19. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236045, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures markets; cross-border volatility transmission; emerging futures exchanges; price spikes in commodity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susanne Deckwitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cqmuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.