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The information flow and market efficiency between the U.S. and Chinese aluminum and copper futures markets

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  • Hung‐Gay Fung
  • Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu
  • Yiuman Tse

Abstract

This study examines the information flow and market efficiency between the metallurgical futures markets of the United States and China over a ten‐year span from 1999 to 2009. There were structural breaks in the aluminum and copper futures price series for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) between 2006 and 2008. The New York and Shanghai markets are cointegrated, indicating an equilibrium relationship between the two markets. Trading strategies are implemented to explore the error‐correction process. The overall results show that U.S. and Shanghai futures prices are closely related and both markets are comparably efficient on a daily basis. The U.S. market does not appear to be more efficient than the Chinese market in incorporating information into prices. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

Suggested Citation

  • Hung‐Gay Fung & Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu & Yiuman Tse, 2010. "The information flow and market efficiency between the U.S. and Chinese aluminum and copper futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 1192-1209, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:30:y:2010:i:12:p:1192-1209
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    2. Yang, Chen & Lv, Fei & Fang, Libing & Shang, Xingxing, 2020. "The pricing efficiency of crude oil futures in the Shanghai International Exchange," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2020. "Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1354-1374, September.
    6. Li, Gang & Li, Yong, 2015. "Forecasting copper futures volatility under model uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 167-176.
    7. Kim, Soohyeon & Kim, Jihyo & Heo, Eunnyeong, 2017. "Convenience yield of accessible inventories and imports: A case study of the Chinese copper market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 277-283.
    8. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Prabina Rajib, 2023. "The impact of Sino–US trade war on price discovery of soybean: A double‐edged sword?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 858-879, July.
    9. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
    10. Claudia Wellenreuther & Jan Voelzke, 2019. "Speculation and volatility—A time‐varying approach applied on Chinese commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 405-417, April.
    11. Chris Motengwe & Angel Pardo, 2016. "Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 636-653, December.
    12. Yu, Hui & Ding, Yinghui & Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Jia, Xiaoliang & Wang, Xinya & Guo, Sui, 2021. "Multi-scale comovement of the dynamic correlations between copper futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Bohl, Martin T. & Gross, Christian & Souza, Waldemar, 2019. "The role of emerging economies in the global price formation process of commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. coffee markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 203-215.
    14. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    15. He, Chaohua & Jiang, Cheng & Molyboga, Marat, 2019. "Risk premia in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    17. Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu & Hui Sono & Wei Zhang, 2021. "The Price Discovery Processes in China, India, and Russia’s Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(03), pages 1-28, September.
    18. Zhang, Xuan & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Zhekai, 2020. "An anatomy of commodity futures returns in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Hyuna Ham & Hoon Cho & Hyeongjun Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Time‐series momentum in China's commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1515-1528, December.
    20. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2014. "Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 17-29.
    21. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    22. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.
    23. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.

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