Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty over the Business Cycle: A Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach
This paper proposes to relate conditional quantiles of stationary macroeconomic time series to the different phases of the business cycle. Based on this idea, I introduce a Bayesian Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive framework for the analysis of the effects of uncertainty on the US real economy. For this purpose, I define a novel representation of the multivariate Laplace distribution that allows for the joint treatment of multiple equation regression quantiles. I find significant evidence for asymmetric effects of uncertainty over the US business cycle. The strongest negative effects are revealed during recession periods. During boom phases uncertainty shocks improve the soundness of the economy. Moreover, the phase of the financial sector matters when the real economy is at recession but not if the economy is at boom. When the financial system is in a bad state, an uncertainty shock leads to a deeper recession than in times when the financial system is in a good state.
|Date of creation:||27 Jan 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: D-78457 Konstanz|
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/fb
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.wiwi.uni-konstanz.de/fb|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hideo Kozumi & Genya Kobayashi, 2009. "Gibbs Sampling Methods for Bayesian Quantile Regression," Discussion Papers 2009-02, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
- Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016.
"The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, 06.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The changing international transmission of financial shocks: evidence from a classical time-varying FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Helbling & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010.
"Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective,"
IMF Working Papers
10/261, International Monetary Fund.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997.
"Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu Yuan & Bottai Matteo, 2009. "Mixed-Effects Models for Conditional Quantiles with Longitudinal Data," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, November.
- R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
- Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Yan Carrière–Swallow & Luis Felipe Céspedes, 2011.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
646, Central Bank of Chile.
- Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dries F. Benoit & Dirk Van den Poel, 2012. "Binary quantile regression: a Bayesian approach based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1174-1188, November.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012.
"How do business and financial cycles interact?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
- Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?," IMF Working Papers 11/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2011. "How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8396, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
- Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Wei, D.C.M., 2009. "Bayesian causal effects in quantiles: Accounting for heteroscedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1993-2007, April.
- Genya Kobayashi & Hideo Kozumi, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of quantile regression for censored dynamic panel data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 359-380, June.
- Alhamzawi, Rahim & Yu, Keming, 2013. "Conjugate priors and variable selection for Bayesian quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 209-219.
- Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:knz:dpteco:1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Lisa Green)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.