IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book or follow this series

Illiquidité, contagion et risque systémique

  • Le Fol, Gaëlle
  • Dudek, Jérémy
Registered author(s):

    The aim of this thesis is to improve the management of financial risks through the employment of econometric methods. We focus on liquidity (market and funding), contagion and systemic risk, which have attracted a particularly large interest in the last years of financial turmoil. Firstly, we construct a funding liquidity factor based on the contagion effects that market liquidity risks encounter. This procedure can be useful to provide a better management of the liquidity mismatch among the assets and liabilities of a fund. Secondly, we propose a meta-measure of liquidity which incorporates multiple liquidity measures through the use of a conditional correlation model. As a result, we are able to detect drastic liquidity problems by using a single measure. Thirdly, we propose a new modeling framework for financial returns by adding an extra component related to funding liquidity to the standard DCoVaR model. In this way we obtain a countercyclical measure of systemic risk. Finally, we study to which extent a change in the estimation method affects the identification of systemically relevant Financial Institutions. In particular, the most popular measures aim at capturing the nonlinearity of the dependence structure between financial firms and market returns. We show, however, that similar results can be obtained by simply assuming a linear dependence, which can also largely simplify the estimation.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    in new window

    This book is provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/13236 and published in 2013.
    Handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/13236
    Note: dissertation
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Teo, Melvyn, 2011. "The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 24-44, April.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market liquidity and funding liquidity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    6. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & René Garcia, 2012. "Bond Liquidity Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1207-1254.
    8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
    10. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January.
    11. BAUWENS, Luc & otranto, EDOARDO, 2013. "Modeling the dependence of conditional correlations on volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 2013014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Kris Boudt & Ellen C.S. Paulus & Dale W.R. Rosenthal, 2013. "Funding liquidity, market liquidity and TED spread : A two-regime model," Working Paper Research 244, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
    14. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. John Ammer & Fang Cai, 2007. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Lorán Chollete & Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp, 2007. "What captures liquidity risk? A comparison of trade and order based liquidity factors," Working Paper 2007/03, Norges Bank.
    18. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    19. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2012. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Working Papers 15030, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 29 Aug 2012.
    20. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    22. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    23. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-41.
    24. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    25. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    26. David L. Mengle, 2007. "Credit derivatives: an overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 1 - 24.
    27. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    28. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
    30. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
    31. Aitken, Michael & Comerton-Forde, Carole, 2003. "How should liquidity be measured?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-59, January.
    32. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    33. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2004. "Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 305-326, June.
    34. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    35. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    36. Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Harris, L., 1990. "Liquidity , Trading Rules and Electronic Trading Systems ," Papers 91-8, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
    38. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Total credit as an early warning indicator for systemic banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    39. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    40. Carole Comerton-Forde & Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones & Pamela C. Moulton & Mark S. Seasholes, 2010. "Time Variation in Liquidity: The Role of Market-Maker Inventories and Revenues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 295-331, 02.
    41. Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.
    42. Wang, Kuan-Min & Nguyen Thi, Thanh-Binh, 2007. "Testing for contagion under asymmetric dynamics: Evidence from the stock markets between US and Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 422-432.
    43. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    44. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    45. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    46. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    47. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/13236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexandre Faure)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.