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Illiquidité, contagion et risque systémique

  • Le Fol, Gaëlle
  • Dudek, Jérémy
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    The aim of this thesis is to improve the management of financial risks through the employment of econometric methods. We focus on liquidity (market and funding), contagion and systemic risk, which have attracted a particularly large interest in the last years of financial turmoil. Firstly, we construct a funding liquidity factor based on the contagion effects that market liquidity risks encounter. This procedure can be useful to provide a better management of the liquidity mismatch among the assets and liabilities of a fund. Secondly, we propose a meta-measure of liquidity which incorporates multiple liquidity measures through the use of a conditional correlation model. As a result, we are able to detect drastic liquidity problems by using a single measure. Thirdly, we propose a new modeling framework for financial returns by adding an extra component related to funding liquidity to the standard DCoVaR model. In this way we obtain a countercyclical measure of systemic risk. Finally, we study to which extent a change in the estimation method affects the identification of systemically relevant Financial Institutions. In particular, the most popular measures aim at capturing the nonlinearity of the dependence structure between financial firms and market returns. We show, however, that similar results can be obtained by simply assuming a linear dependence, which can also largely simplify the estimation.

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    This book is provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/13236 and published in 2013.
    Order: http://basepub.dauphine.fr/xmlui/handle/123456789/13236
    Handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/13236
    Note: dissertation
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