IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/voj/journl/v60y2013i4p473-497.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Which Global Stock Indices Trigger Stronger Contagion Risk in the Vietnamese Stock Market? Evidence Using a Bivariate Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kuan-Min Wang

    () (Department of Finance, Overseas Chinese University, Taiwan)

  • Hung-Cheng Lai

    () (Department of Finance, Overseas Chinese University, Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the correlation contagion test and Dungey et al.’s (2005) contagion test, we find contagion effects between the Vietnamese and four other stock markets, namely Japan, Singapore, China, and the US. Second, we show that the Japanese stock market causes stronger contagion riskin the Vietnamese stock market compared to the stock markets of China, Singapore, and the US. Finally, we show that the Chinese and US stock marketscause weaker contagion effects in the Vietnamese stock market because of stronger interdependence effects between the former two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuan-Min Wang & Hung-Cheng Lai, 2013. "Which Global Stock Indices Trigger Stronger Contagion Risk in the Vietnamese Stock Market? Evidence Using a Bivariate Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 473-497, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:60:y:2013:i:4:p:473-497
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2013_4/03%20Kuan-Min%20Wang%20and%20Hung-Cheng%20Lai.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2010. "The relationship between the Vietnam stock market and its major trading partners - TECM with bivariate asymmetric GARCH model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1279-1283.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    4. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    5. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003.
    6. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    7. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1999. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations," NBER Working Papers 7056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cristiana Tudor, 2011. "Changes in Stock Markets Interdependencies as a Result of the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Investigation on the CEE Region," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 525-543, December.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    14. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    15. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    16. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    17. André Farber & Van Nam Nguyen & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2006. "Policy impacts on Vietnam stock markets: a case of anomalies and disequilibria 2000-2006," Working Papers CEB 06-005.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Wang, Kuan-Min & Nguyen Thi, Thanh-Binh, 2007. "Testing for contagion under asymmetric dynamics: Evidence from the stock markets between US and Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 422-432.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    21. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco López-Herrera & Roberto J. & Edgar Ortiz, 2014. "Interdependence of NAFTA Capital Markets: A Minimum Variance Portfolio Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(6), pages 691-707, December.
    2. Tzu-Yi Yang & Yu-Tai Yang, 2015. "A Study on the Asymmetry of the News Aspect of the Stock Market: Evidence from Three Institutional Investors in the Taiwan Stock Market," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 361-383, June.
    3. repec:eee:phsmap:v:480:y:2017:i:c:p:10-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dimitris Kenourgios & Dimitrios Dimitriou, 2014. "Contagion Effects of the Global Financial Crisis in US and European Real Economy Sectors," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 275-288, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnamese stock market; Contagion risk; EGARCH model; DCC estimation; Sub-prime mortgage crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:60:y:2013:i:4:p:473-497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivana Horvat). General contact details of provider: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.