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The Yield Curve Information Under Unconventional Monetary Policies

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  • Damián Romero
  • Luis Ceballos

Abstract

This paper attempts to address the question of how unconventional monetary policies affected the market expectations in both the future paths of the monetary policy rate and economic growth implicit in interest rates in the period 2007-2013 for several developed and developing countries where these kind of policies were applied. The approach used in this paper is to compare the implicit expectations in the yield curve with market surveys and econometric models to see whether the first ones were affected. We conclude that in the period where unconventional monetary policies were applied, the yield curve provided relevant additional information to forecast the monetary policy rate and economic growth, especially in developed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Damián Romero & Luis Ceballos, 2014. "The Yield Curve Information Under Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 732, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:732
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_732.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    2. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Javier García-Cicco, 2011. "Heterodox Central Banking," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 8, pages 219-281, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia, 2011. "Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 1, pages 001-021, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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