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Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d’endettement et évolution de l’état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada

  • Paquet, Alain

    (Centre de recherche sur l’emploi et les fluctuations économiques, UQAM)

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    This paper discusses the measurement, the causes and the implication of public indebtedness. Several indicators of indebtedness, solvency and fiscal prudence are also reviewed. Having presented a descriptive and comparative analysis of public indebtedness of the various levels of government in Canada and elsewhere, we assess the solvency of governments in Canada. Finally, we construct indicators of fiscal prudence for the Federal and the Quebec governments that reveal to which extent the fiscal policies that were followed were unsustainable. Ce texte discute de la mesure, des causes et des conséquences de l’endettement public et revoit divers indicateurs d’endettement, de solvabilité et de prudence fiscale. Après avoir présenté une analyse descriptive et comparative de la situation de la dette publique des gouvernements au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde, nous évaluons la solvabilité des gouvernements au Canada. Finalement, nous construisons des indicateurs de prudence fiscale pour les gouvernements fédéral et québécois qui révèlent dans quelle mesure les politiques financières poursuivies ont été insoutenables.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 75 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 1 (mars-juin-septembre)
    Pages: 475-518

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:75:y:1999:i:1:p:475-518
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    1. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
    5. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1992. "How little we know about deficit policy effects," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
    6. Chris Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Why Have Private Saving Rates in the United States and Canada Diverged?," NBER Working Papers 2319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "The optimum quantity of debt," Staff Report 203, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Trostel, Philip A., 1993. "The nonequivalence between deficits and distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 207-227, April.
    9. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1986. "Principles of fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-134, January.
    11. Perron, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Does Gnp Have a Unit Root? a Reevaluation," Cahiers de recherche 8640, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    12. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
    13. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
    14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    15. Boothe, Paul M. & Reid, Bradford G., 1989. "Asset returns and government budgets in a small open economy : Empirical evidence for Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 65-77, January.
    16. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
    17. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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