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How little we know about deficit policy effects

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  • Preston J. Miller
  • William Roberds

Abstract

We use a simple model to show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies' findings can be shown to be consistent with policies either mattering or not. We argue that this problem is difficult and not likely to be resolved soon.

Suggested Citation

  • Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1992. "How little we know about deficit policy effects," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1992:i:win:p:2-11:n:v.16no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 361-387, October.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-338, April.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
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    13. Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
    14. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
    15. Preston J. Miller, 1983. "Higher deficit policies lead to higher inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 393-442 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Paquet, Alain, 1999. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d’endettement et évolution de l’état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 75(1), pages 475-518, mars-juin.
    3. Kamps, Christophe, 2001. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Pre- and Post-Maastricht," Kiel Working Papers 1028, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Alain Paquet, 1998. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 59, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    5. Mounts, Wm. Jr. & Sowell, Clifford, 1995. "A statistical note on possible institutional regimes in budget policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 149-160.

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    Keywords

    Budget deficits ; Fiscal policy;

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