How little we know about deficit policy effects
We use a simple model to show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies' findings can be shown to be consistent with policies either mattering or not. We argue that this problem is difficult and not likely to be resolved soon.
Volume (Year): (1992)
Issue (Month): Win ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291|
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1982. "Inflation and Government Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 315-29, July.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Preston J. Miller, 1983. "Higher deficit policies lead to higher inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- B. Douglas Bernheim & Kyle Bagwell, 1986.
"Is Everything Neutral?,"
NBER Working Papers
2086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1987.
"The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique,"
109, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 361-87, October.
- Neil Wallace, 1983. "A legal restrictions theory of the demand for "money" and the role of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
- Evans, Paul, 1991. "Is Ricardian Equivalence a Good Approximation?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 626-44, October.
- Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
- Abel, Andrew B & Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991.
"Fiscal Policy with Impure Intergenerational Altruism,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1687-1711, November.
- Andrew B. Abel & B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Fiscal Policy With Impure Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987.
"Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Finite Lifetimes and the Effects of Budget Deficits on National Savings," Working papers 434, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1976.
"The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
- Martin Feldstein, 1986.
"The Budget Deficit and the Dollar,"
NBER Working Papers
1898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring.
- Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1992:i:win:p:2-11:n:v.16no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.