How little we know about budget policy effects
Using a simple model, we show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies’ findings can be shown to be consistent with either policies mattering or not.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- Abel, Andrew B & Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991.
"Fiscal Policy with Impure Intergenerational Altruism,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1687-1711, November.
- Andrew B. Abel & B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Fiscal Policy With Impure Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win.
- Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
- Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, May.
- Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-338, April.
- B. Douglas Bernheim & Kyle Bagwell, 1986. "Is Everything Neutral?," NBER Working Papers 2086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Finite Lifetimes and the Effects of Budget Deficits on National Savings," Working papers 434, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 361-387, October.
- Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1987. "The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique," Staff Report 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1982. "Inflation and Government Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 315-329, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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