IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/repdal/redp_144_0489.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Caractérisation des crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Maillet
  • Madalina Olteanu
  • Joseph Rynkiewicz

Abstract

Characterization of financial crisis with hybridHMC-MLP models Violent turbulences are often striking the financial markets and an Index of Market Shocks (IMS) was recently introduced in the attempt of quantifying these turbulences. Regime switching linear models have already been used in modelling the conditional volatility of returns. In this paper, we propose a description of the IMS with hybrid models integrating multi-layer perceptrons and hidden Markov chains. After studying the prediction performance of the models, we focus on the series separation and the index behaviour subject to hidden states.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Maillet & Madalina Olteanu & Joseph Rynkiewicz, 2004. "Caractérisation des crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 489-506.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_144_0489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REDP_144_0489
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique-2004-4-page-489.htm
    Download Restriction: free

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    4. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    5. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2003. "An index of market shocks based on multiscale analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 88-97.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_144_0489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire). General contact details of provider: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.