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Oil price volatility, economic growth and the hedging role of renewable energy

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  • Rentschler, Jun E.

Abstract

This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility, but a country-specific analysis would be necessary to identify concrete policy measures. Overall, the paper provides an additional rationale for reducing exposure and vulnerability to oil price volatility for the sake of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Oil price volatility, economic growth and the hedging role of renewable energy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6603, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Malik, Ihtisham Abdul & Siyal, Ghamz-e-Ali & Bin Abdullah, Alias & Alam, Arif & Zaman, Khalid & Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Baloch, Siraj Ullah & Shams, Tauqeer, 2014. "Turn on the lights: Macroeconomic factors affecting renewable energy in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-284.
    2. Malik, Ihtisham Abdul & Siyal, Ghamz-e-Ali & Abdullah, Alias Bin & Alam, Arif & Zaman, Khalid & Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Baloch, Siraj Ullah & Shams, Tauqeer, 2014. "Turn on the Lights: Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Renewable in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 56828, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jun 2014.
    3. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:215:y:2018:i:c:p:87-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Huenteler, Joern, 2014. "International support for feed-in tariffs in developing countries—A review and analysis of proposed mechanisms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 857-873.
    6. Tobi Olasojiand & Elijah Acquah-Andoh, 2016. "Evaluating The Short Run Effects Of U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels On Wti Crude Oil Price From 1993 - 2013," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 64-84.
    7. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Energy Production and Transportation; Climate Change Economics; Markets and Market Access; Energy Demand; Emerging Markets;

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