The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited
The time series evidence on the relationship between unemployment and the real prices of capital and energy is re-examined for US data. In contrast to previous studies, results indicate that the real interest rate matters little, if at all, for equilibrium unemployment. Using a Markov Switching vector autoregressive method proposed by Psaradakis, Ravn, Sola (2005) [JApplEconometrics 20(5), pp. 665-683] to investigate time-varying Granger causality, the paper shows that the real rate helps forecast unemployment during NBER expansions only. Granger causality from the oil price to unemployment occurs in recessions. The results support the view that the price of crude induces at least some recessions, while not being a regular feature of the US business cycle.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 8 Woodland Road, Bristol, BS8 1TN|
Phone: 0117 928 8415
Fax: 0117 928 8577
Web page: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu, 2004.
"Optimal test for Markov switching,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
396, Econometric Society.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
- Zoega, Gylfi, 1994.
"Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
- Bianchi, Marco & Zoega, Gylfi, 1995. "Unemployment Persistence : Does the Size of the Shock Matter ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1995014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996.
"Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carruth, A.A. & Hooker, M.A. & Oswald, A.J., 1998.
"Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
496, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
- Carruth,a. & Hooker, N. & Oswald,A., 1997. "Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States," Papers 22, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
- Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana María & Zoega, Gylfi, 2000. "Evaluating The Persistence And Structuralist Theories Of Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997.
"Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies,"
Research Working Paper
97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
- Michael Dotsey & Max Reid, 1992. "Oil shocks, monetary policy, and economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 14-27.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005.
"Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
- Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James D. Hamilton, 2005.
"What's real about the business cycle?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 435-452.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
- David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:06/592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Temple)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.