IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/qucehw/201205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The fuel of unparalleled recovery: Monetary policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936

Author

Listed:
  • Swanepoel, Christie
  • Fliers, Philip

Abstract

The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa's exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa's exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB's policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country's exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation, was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa's unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation, however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank's control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Swanepoel, Christie & Fliers, Philip, 2021. "The fuel of unparalleled recovery: Monetary policy in South Africa between 1925 and 1936," QUCEH Working Paper Series 21-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/234902/1/1760702528.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Matthias Morys & Guillaume Daudin & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "Globalization, 1870-1914," Economics Series Working Papers 395, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), 2006. "Modern Econometric Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-32693-9, January.
    4. Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
    5. Feinstein,Charles H., 2005. "An Economic History of South Africa," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521616416, May.
    6. Anders Ögren & Lars Fredrik Øksendal (ed.), 2012. "The Gold Standard Peripheries," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-36231-4, January.
    7. Herman Wee, 2012. "Belgian Monetary Policy under the Gold Standard during the Interwar Period," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Anders Ögren & Lars Fredrik Øksendal (ed.), The Gold Standard Peripheries, chapter 7, pages 130-144, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 59-74, March.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    11. Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2008. "The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 151-181, March.
    12. Sumner, Scott, 2015. "Nominal GDP futures targeting," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 65-75.
    13. Betrán, Concha & Martín-Aceña, Pablo & Pons, María A., 2012. "Financial Crises In Spain: Lessons From The Last 150 Years," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 417-446, December.
    14. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The inter-war gold exchange standard: credibility and monetary independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    15. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Eichengreen, Barry, 1984. "Central bank cooperation under the interwar gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 64-87, January.
    17. Vishnu Padayachee & Bradley Bordiss, 2015. "How Global Geo-Politics Shaped South Africa's Post-World War I Monetary Policy: The Case Of Gerhard Vissering And Edwin Kemmerer In South Africa, 1924-25," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 182-209, December.
    18. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2005. "Interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard, 1880-1914: was there any monetary independence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 307-327, March.
    19. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 241-275, April.
    20. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
    21. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, June.
    23. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    24. Nikolaus Wolf, 2012. "Crises and Policy Responses within the Political Trilemma: Europe, 1929-1936 and 2008-2011," Working Papers 0016, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    25. Masato Shizume, 2012. "The Japanese Economy during the Interwar Period: Instability in the Financial System and the Impact of the World Depression," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Anders Ögren & Lars Fredrik Øksendal (ed.), The Gold Standard Peripheries, chapter 11, pages 211-228, Palgrave Macmillan.
    26. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    27. Monnet, Eric & bazot, guillaume & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891," CEPR Discussion Papers 13895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Colvin, Christopher L. & Fliers, Philip, 2019. "Going Dutch: The management of monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2019-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    29. Feinstein,Charles H., 2005. "An Economic History of South Africa," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521850919, May.
    30. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    31. J. C. Laight, 1956. "Banking Liquidity And Central Bank Control In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 24(2), pages 113-124, June.
    32. Marc Flandreau, 1997. "The Gold Standard in Theory and History," Post-Print hal-03416310, HAL.
    33. Simmons, Beth A., 1996. "Rulers of the game: central bank independence during the interwar years," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 407-443, July.
    34. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
    35. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    36. Matthias Morys & Guillaume Daudin & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "Globalization, 1870-1914," Economics Series Working Papers 395, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    2. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    2. Colvin, Christopher L. & Fliers, Philip, 2019. "Going Dutch: The management of monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2019-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    3. Fliers, Philip T. & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Going Dutch: monetary policy in the Netherlands during the interwar gold standard, 1925–1936," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 121-151, August.
    4. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
    5. Weinan Yan, 2022. "Inequality and the Interwar Gold Standard," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 90-121, January.
    6. Paolo Di Martino, 2021. "Central Banks' Intervention in Exchange Rate Markets During the "Classical" Gold Standard: Italy 1880-1913," Working papers 072, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    7. Matthias Morys, 2016. "Financial supervision to fight fiscal dominance? The gold standard in Greece and South-East Europe between economic and political objectives and fiscal reality, 1841-1939," Discussion Papers 16/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Matthias Morys, 2015. "Any lessons for today? Exchange-rate stabilisation in Greece and South-East Europe between economic and political objectives and fiscal reality, 1841-1939," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 15/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    10. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    12. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.
    13. Corsetti, G. & Kuester, K. & Müller, G. J. & Schmidt, S., 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2109, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Economics Series Working Papers 896, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Roldan Alba, 2022. "The Golden Fetters in the Mediterranean Periphery. How Spain and Italy Overcame Business Cycles Between 1870 and 1913?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 170-193, January.
    16. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Chernyshoff, Natalia & Jacks, David S. & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-205, April.
    18. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    20. Cezar, Rafael & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Capital controls and foreign reserves against external shocks: Combined or alone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/chqubuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.