Optimal management with potential regime shifts
We analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management. We use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics, and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift. Prior work in economics has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions on whether the potential for regime shift will increase or decrease intensity of resource use and level of resource stock. We show that all other cases yield unambiguous results. In particular, with endogenous probability of regime shift that affects system dynamics the potential for regime shift causes optimal management to become precautionary in the sense of maintaining higher resource stock levels.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990.
"Herd Behavior and Investment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
- W.A. Brock & D. Starrett, 2003. "Managing Systems with Non-convex Positive Feedback," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(4), pages 575-602, December.
- Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2006. "Welfare measurement under threats of environmental catastrophes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 421-429, July.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- Li, Chuan-Zhong & Mäler, Karl-Göran, 2010.
"Measuring sustainability under regime shift uncertainty: A resilience pricing approach,"
Working Paper Series
2010:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Mäler, Karl-Göran & Li, Chuan-Zhong, 2010. "Measuring sustainability under regime shift uncertainty: a resilience pricing approach," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 707-719, December.
- Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1996. "Accounting for global warming risks: Resource management under event uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1289-1305.
- Xin Guo & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2002.
"Irreversible Investment with Regime Shifts,"
FAME Research Paper Series
rp99, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Mäler, K-G. & Xepapadeas, A. & de Zeeuw, A.J., 2003.
"The economics of shallow lakes,"
Other publications TiSEM
368f83ad-bc2f-4ad4-b603-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999.
"Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August.
- Jon Gjerde & Sverre Grepperud & Snorre Kverndokk, 1998. "Optimal Climate Policy under the Possibility of a Catastrophe," Discussion Papers 209, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Perrings, Charles & Walker, Brian, 1997. "Biodiversity, resilience and the control of ecological-economic systems: the case of fire-driven rangelands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 73-83, July.
- Cropper, M. L., 1976. "Regulating activities with catastrophic environmental effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, June.
- Janssen, Marco A. & Anderies, John M. & Walker, Brian H., 2004. "Robust strategies for managing rangelands with multiple stable attractors," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 140-162, January.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2006.
"More hedging instruments may destabilize markets,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
06-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Florian Wagener & Cars Hommes & William Brock, 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Working Papers wp06-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- William Brock & Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2006. "More Hedging Instruments may destablize Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-080/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Apr 2008.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989.
"Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
- Keller, Klaus & Bolker, Benjamin M. & Bradford, D.F.David F., 2004. "Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 723-741, July.
- Morton I. Kamien & Nancy L. Schwartz, 1971. "Optimal Maintenance and Sale Age for a Machine Subject to Failure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(8), pages B495-B504, April.
- Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
- Yacov Tsur & Amos Zemel, 2008. "Regulating environmental threats," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 297-310, March.
- Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
- Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
- Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1994. "Consumption/pollution tradeoffs in an environment vulnerable to pollution-related catastrophic collapse," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 991-1010, September.
- Thomas Aronsson & Kenneth Backlund & Karl-Gustaf Löfgren, 1998. "Nuclear Power, Externalities and Non-Standard Pigouvian Taxes," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 177-195, March.
- Eric Nævdal, 2001. "Optimal Regulation of Eutrophying Lakes, Fjords, and Rivers in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 972-984.
- Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
- Spence, A Michael & Starrett, David, 1975. "Most Rapid Approach Paths in Accumulation Problems," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 388-403, June.
- Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1998. "Pollution control in an uncertain environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 967-975, June.
- Naevdal, Eric, 2006. "Dynamic optimisation in the presence of threshold effects when the location of the threshold is uncertain - with an application to a possible disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1131-1158, July.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Tsur Yacov & Zemel Amos, 1995. "Uncertainty and Irreversibility in Groundwater Resource Management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 149-161, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:62:y:2011:i:2:p:229-240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.