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Regime Shifts and Uncertainty in Pollution Control

  • Aart de Zeeuw
  • Amos Zemel

We develop a simple model of managing a system subject to pollution damage under risk of an abrupt and random jump in the damage coefficient. The model allows the full dynamic characterization of the optimal emission policies under uncertainty. The results, that imply prudent behavior due to uncertainty, are compared with the ambiguous outcomes reported in the literature for similar models. The differences are explained in terms of the properties of the damage function associated with each model. The framework is used to analyze the adaptation vs. mitigation dilemma and provides a simple criterion to determine whether adaptation activities should be undertaken promptly, delayed to some future date, or avoided altogether.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2012/wp-cesifo-2012-01/cesifo1_wp3697.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3697.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3697
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  1. Brozovic, Nicholas & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2011. "Optimal management of an ecosystem with an unknown threshold," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 627-640, February.
  2. Zmarak Shalizi & Franck Lecocq, 2010. "To Mitigate or to Adapt: Is that the Question? Observations on an Appropriate Response to the Climate Change Challenge to Development Strategies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(2), pages 295-321, August.
  3. Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1994. "Consumption/pollution tradeoffs in an environment vulnerable to pollution-related catastrophic collapse," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 991-1010, September.
  4. Bruno Nkuiya, 2011. "International Emission Strategies under the Threat of a Sudden Jump in Damages," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2011-1, CREATE.
  5. Morton I. Kamien & Nancy L. Schwartz, 1971. "Optimal Maintenance and Sale Age for a Machine Subject to Failure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(8), pages B495-B504, April.
  6. Barry Smit & Ian Burton & Richard Klein & J. Wandel, 2000. "An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 223-251, April.
  7. Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999. "Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August.
  8. Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Scholarly Articles 3693423, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
  10. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The "Stern Review" on the Economics of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 12741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1996. "Accounting for global warming risks: Resource management under event uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1289-1305.
  12. Eric Nævdal, 2003. "Dynamic Optimisation in the Presence of Threshold Effects when the Location of the Threshold is Uncertain With an Application to a Possible Disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet," Working Papers 143, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
  13. Dockner Engelbert J. & Van Long Ngo, 1993. "International Pollution Control: Cooperative versus Noncooperative Strategies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 13-29, July.
  14. Van Der Ploeg, F. & De Zeeuw, A.J., 1990. "International Aspects Of Pollution Control," Papers 9065, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  15. Gollier, Christian & Treich, Nicolas, 2003. " Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 77-103, August.
  16. Toman, Michael & Shogren, Jason, 2000. "Climate Change Policy," Discussion Papers dp-00-22, Resources For the Future.
  17. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2001. "The infinite horizon dynamic optimization problem revisited: A simple method to determine equilibrium states," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 482-490, June.
  18. Yacov Tsur & Amos Zemel, 2009. "Endogenous Discounting and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 507-520, December.
  19. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-377516 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1998. "Pollution control in an uncertain environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 967-975, June.
  21. repec:oup:wbrobs:v:25:y:2009:i:2:p:295-321 is not listed on IDEAS
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