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International Emission Strategies under the Threat of a Sudden Jump in Damages

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  • Bruno Nkuiya

Abstract

We characterize the equilibrium level of emissions, the equilibrium stock of global pollution and the discounted net social welfare for both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria when the countries face the threat of a sudden irreversible jump in the global damages at an unknown date. The goal is to analyze the impact of this type of uncertainty on the equilibrium behavior of the countries. We find that it can have a significant effect on those equilibria. Countries reduce their emissions to mitigate their exposure to this threat. As the level of threat rises, countries adjust their emissions to lower the stock of pollutant. However, although initially this threat has the effect of lowering the discounted net welfare, it can in the long run have a net positive effect on welfare. The emissions trajectory is non-monotonic and discontinuous, but only under the threat.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Nkuiya, 2011. "International Emission Strategies under the Threat of a Sudden Jump in Damages," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2011-1, CREATE.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:creacr:2011-1
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    File URL: https://www.create.ulaval.ca/sites/create.ulaval.ca/files/Publications/create2011-1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. de Zeeuw, Aart & Zemel, Amos, 2012. "Regime shifts and uncertainty in pollution control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 939-950.
    2. Bruno Nkuiya & Walid Marrouch & Eric Bahel, 2015. "International Environmental Agreements under Endogenous Uncertainty," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(5), pages 752-772, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global pollution; environmental uncertainty; regime shift; stochastic differential games;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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