IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study

  • Zhang, Yiting
  • Lee, Gladys Hui Ting
  • Wong, Jian Cheng
  • Kok, Jun Liang
  • Prusty, Manamohan
  • Cheong, Siew Ann
Registered author(s):

    We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002–2003, 2004–2005, 2008–2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437111000847
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 390 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 11 ()
    Pages: 2020-2050

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:11:p:2020-2050
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Christian Borghesi & Matteo Marsili & Salvatore Miccich\`e, 2007. "Emergence of time-horizon invariant correlation structure in financial returns by subtraction of the market mode," Papers physics/0702106, arXiv.org.
    2. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    3. Ricardo Coehlo & Claire Gilmore & Brian M. Lucey, 2006. "The Evolution of Interdependence in World Equity Markets - Evidence from Minimum Spanning Trees," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp142, IIIS.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. G. Andrew Karoly & Rene Stulz, . "Why do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Research in Financial Economics 9603, Ohio State University.
    7. Jushan Bai; Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2004. "Structural changes, common stochastic trends and unit roots in panel data," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 345, Econometric Society.
    8. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    9. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
    10. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & Boscia, Marian, 2008. "An ever-closer union? Examining the evolution of linkages of European equity markets via minimum spanning trees," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6319-6329.
    11. Alasdair Scott & Pau Rabanal & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/252, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hann Law & George Tauchen, 2007. "Risk, Jumps, and Diversification," CREATES Research Papers 2007-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Kullmann, L & Töyli, J & Kertesz, J & Kanto, A & Kaski, K, 1999. "Characteristic times in stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 98-110.
    14. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
    15. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    16. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciche` & N. Vandewalle & R. N. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0401300, arXiv.org.
    17. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2001. "Structural Change In Ar(1) Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 87-155, February.
    18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2004. "Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm401, Yale School of Management.
    19. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    20. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
    21. John Boyd & Gianni De Nicolò & Elena Loukoianova, 2010. "Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 3134, CESifo Group Munich.
    22. Miccichè, Salvatore & Bonanno, Giovanni & Lillo, Fabrizio & N. Mantegna, Rosario, 2003. "Degree stability of a minimum spanning tree of price return and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 66-73.
    23. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
    24. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
    25. G. William Schwert, 1997. "Stock Market Volatility: Ten Years After the Crash," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    26. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis:How Similar? How Different? How Costly?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1011, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    27. Tai-leung Chong, Terence, 1995. "Partial parameter consistency in a misspecified structural change model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 351-357, October.
    28. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    29. John Simpson, 2010. "Were there warning signals from banking sectors for the 2008/2009 global financial crisis?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 45-61.
    30. Douglas Wong & Kui-Wai Li, 2010. "Comparing the performance of relative stock return differential and real exchange rate in two financial crises," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 137-150.
    31. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Thomas Conlon & Heather J. Ruskin & Martin Crane, 2010. "Multiscaled Cross-Correlation Dynamics in Financial Time-Series," Papers 1001.0497, arXiv.org.
    33. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    34. J.-P. Onnela & K. Kaski & J. Kertész, 2004. "Clustering and information in correlation based financial networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 38(2), pages 353-362, 03.
    35. Nolan, John P., 1998. "Parameterizations and modes of stable distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 187-195, June.
    36. Çukur, Sadik & Eryiğit, Mehmet & Eryiğit, Resul, 2007. "Cross correlations in an emerging market financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 555-564.
    37. Weiyu Guo & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Identifying Regime Changes In Market Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93.
    38. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
    39. Coelho, R. & Hutzler, S. & Repetowicz, P. & Richmond, P., 2007. "Sector analysis for a FTSE portfolio of stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 373(C), pages 615-626.
    40. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    41. Tola, Vincenzo & Lillo, Fabrizio & Gallegati, Mauro & Mantegna, Rosario N., 2008. "Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 235-258, January.
    42. Boginski, Vladimir & Butenko, Sergiy & Pardalos, Panos M., 2005. "Statistical analysis of financial networks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 431-443, February.
    43. Bence Toth & Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2010. "Segmentation algorithm for non-stationary compound Poisson processes," Papers 1001.2549, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2011.
    44. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2010. "The correlation structure of FX option markets before and since the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 73-84.
    45. Onnela, J.-P. & Chakraborti, A. & Kaski, K. & Kertész, J., 2003. "Dynamic asset trees and Black Monday," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 247-252.
    46. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
    47. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Working Papers 18-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    48. Eom, Cheoljun & Kwon, Okyu & Jung, Woo-Sung & Kim, Seunghwan, 2010. "The effect of a market factor on information flow between stocks using the minimal spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(8), pages 1643-1652.
    49. Cristiana Tudor, 2009. "Understanding the Roots of the US Subprime Crisis and its Subsequent Effects," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(31), pages 115-143, (1).
    50. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Varsha Kulkarni & Nivedita Deo, 2007. "Correlation and volatility in an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 101-109, November.
    52. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2008. "Multidimensional minimal spanning tree: The Dow Jones case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5205-5210.
    53. M. Tumminello & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & R. N. Mantegna, 2007. "Correlation based networks of equity returns sampled at different time horizons," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 209-217, 01.
    54. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    55. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    56. Robert J. Hill, 1999. "Comparing Price Levels across Countries Using Minimum-Spanning Trees," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 135-142, February.
    57. Eom, Cheoljun & Oh, Gabjin & Jung, Woo-Sung & Jeong, Hawoong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2009. "Topological properties of stock networks based on minimal spanning tree and random matrix theory in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 900-906.
    58. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    59. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    60. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    61. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
    62. Jung, Woo-Sung & Kwon, Okyu & Wang, Fengzhong & Kaizoji, Taisei & Moon, Hie-Tae & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2008. "Group dynamics of the Japanese market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 537-542.
    63. Huston McCulloch, J. & Panton, Don B., 1997. "Precise tabulation of the maximally-skewed stable distributions and densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 307-320, January.
    64. Michael C. M\"unnix & Rudi Sch\"afer & Oliver Grothe, 2010. "Estimating correlation and covariance matrices by weighting of market similarity," Papers 1006.5847, arXiv.org.
    65. Juan Brida & Wiston Risso, 2010. "Dynamics and Structure of the 30 Largest North American Companies," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 85-99, January.
    66. Wilcox, Diane & Gebbie, Tim, 2004. "On the analysis of cross-correlations in South African market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 294-298.
    67. Giovanni Bonanno & Nicolas Vandewalle & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2000. "Taxonomy of Stock Market Indices," Papers cond-mat/0001268, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2000.
    68. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    69. Stephen Johnson, 1967. "Hierarchical clustering schemes," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 32(3), pages 241-254, September.
    70. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    71. Abdullah Mamun & M. Kabir Hassan & Mark Johnson, 2010. "How did the Fed do? An empirical assessment of the Fed's new initiatives in the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 15-30.
    72. Wong, Jian Cheng & Lian, Heng & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2009. "Detecting macroeconomic phases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(21), pages 4635-4645.
    73. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
    74. repec:skb:wpaper:cofie-07-2009 is not listed on IDEAS
    75. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    76. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    77. M. Gligor & M. Ausloos, 2007. "Cluster structure of EU-15 countries derived from the correlation matrix analysis of macroeconomic index fluctuations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 139-146, 05.
    78. Bai, Jushan, 1995. "Least Absolute Deviation Estimation of a Shift," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 403-436, June.
    79. Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Diagnosis and Prediction of Tipping Points in Financial Markets: Crashes and Rebounds," Papers 1001.0265, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
    80. Panton, Don B. & Lessig, V. Parker & Joy, O. Maurice, 1976. "Comovement of International Equity Markets: A Taxonomic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 415-432, September.
    81. C. Coronnello & M. Tumminello & F. Lillo & S. Miccich\`e & R. N. Mantegna, 2005. "Sector identification in a set of stock return time series traded at the London Stock Exchange," Papers cond-mat/0508122, arXiv.org.
    82. T. Di Matteo & F. Pozzi & T. Aste, 2010. "The use of dynamical networks to detect the hierarchical organization of financial market sectors," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 73(1), pages 3-11, January.
    83. Wilcox, Diane & Gebbie, Tim, 2007. "An analysis of cross-correlations in an emerging market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(2), pages 584-598.
    84. Heimo, Tapio & Kaski, Kimmo & Saramäki, Jari, 2009. "Maximal spanning trees, asset graphs and random matrix denoising in the analysis of dynamics of financial networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(2), pages 145-156.
    85. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    86. Jung, Woo-Sung & Chae, Seungbyung & Yang, Jae-Suk & Moon, Hie-Tae, 2006. "Characteristics of the Korean stock market correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 263-271.
    87. Hill, Robert J, 2001. "Measuring Inflation and Growth Using Spanning Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 167-85, February.
    88. F. Pozzi & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste, 2008. "Centrality And Peripherality In Filtered Graphs From Dynamical Financial Correlations," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(06), pages 927-950.
    89. William Cheung & Scott Fung & Shih-Chuan Tsai, 2010. "Global capital market interdependence and spillover effect of credit risk: evidence from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 85-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:11:p:2020-2050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.