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Macroeconomic variables and stock price volatility in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Osazee Godwin Omorokunwa

    (University of Benin, Nigeria)

  • Nosakhare Ikponmwosa

    (University of Benin, Nigeria)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock price volatility and few macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, GDP and interest rate. Annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2011 was used for this study. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used in the empirical analysis. The findings of the study showed that stock prices in Nigeria are volatile. And that past information in the market have effect on stock price volatility in Nigeria. In addition, the study showed that interest rate and exchange have a weak effect on stock price volatility while inflation is the main determinant of stock price volatility in Nigeria. The authors recommend that inflation should be targeted as the main monetary policy aimed at directing the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Osazee Godwin Omorokunwa & Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, 2014. "Macroeconomic variables and stock price volatility in Nigeria," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 259-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:259-268
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    2. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 203-220.
    3. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility,World-Wide," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0711, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Alexander, Carol, 2004. "Normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility: Modelling short- and long-term smile effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2957-2980, December.
    6. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
    7. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanya Ogunsakin & Isaac Tope Awe, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(4), pages 139-158, December.
    2. Anthony E. Ageme, 2020. "“Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Development and Banking System Liquidity in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(7), pages 107-112, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH model; volatility; inflation; stock price; stock market; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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