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Reviews on uncertainty analysis of wind power forecasting

Author

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  • Yan, Jie
  • Liu, Yongqian
  • Han, Shuang
  • Wang, Yimei
  • Feng, Shuanglei

Abstract

Wind power forecasting (WPF) brings about decision risk to power system operation, because of its certain deviations. The uncertainty analysis of wind power forecasting (WPFUA) or wind power probabilistic forecasting (WPPF) provides probabilistic and confidence levels for decision makers to increase the forecasting certainty. In order to deeply and comprehensively understand WPFUA or WPPF model and then to optimize the forecasting model, the uncertain factors are firstly introduced in this paper. Secondly, the current WPFUA and WPPF methods are classified in terms of model input, modeling principle, express way and forecasting horizons. It summarizes the characteristics, merits and demerits, and application conditions of different methods. Thirdly, two advanced optimization strategies are discussed respectively from temporal and spatial perspectives. Finally, the development direction of uncertainty analysis technology in future is summarized. The objective of this review is, on one hand, to help WPPF users understand the model characteristics from different perspectives and select the most suitable one for various applications. On the other hand, it helps WPPF providers learn and optimize WPPF according to different characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Wang, Yimei & Feng, Shuanglei, 2015. "Reviews on uncertainty analysis of wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1322-1330.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:1322-1330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    2. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
    3. Massrur, Hamid Reza & Niknam, Taher & Aghaei, Jamshid & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2018. "A stochastic mid-term scheduling for integrated wind-thermal systems using self-adaptive optimization approach: A comparative study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 552-564.
    4. Park, BeomJun & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Spatial prediction of renewable energy resources for reinforcing and expanding power grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 757-772.
    5. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    6. Hossein Shayeghi & Elnaz Shahryari & Mohammad Moradzadeh & Pierluigi Siano, 2019. "A Survey on Microgrid Energy Management Considering Flexible Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    8. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    9. Li, Hongmin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2018. "Research and application of a combined model based on variable weight for short term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 669-684.
    10. Agüera-Pérez, Agustín & Palomares-Salas, José Carlos & González de la Rosa, Juan José & Florencias-Oliveros, Olivia, 2018. "Weather forecasts for microgrid energy management: Review, discussion and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 265-278.
    11. Paulescu, Marius & Paulescu, Eugenia, 2019. "Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 985-994.
    12. Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Rezaei, Nima & Lohi, Ali, 2018. "Applications of hybrid models in chemical, petroleum, and energy systems: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2539-2566.
    13. Fang Liu & Ranran Li & Aliona Dreglea, 2019. "Wind Speed and Power Ultra Short-Term Robust Forecasting Based on Takagi–Sugeno Fuzzy Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(18), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Zhang, Jinhua & Yan, Jie & Infield, David & Liu, Yongqian & Lien, Fue-sang, 2019. "Short-term forecasting and uncertainty analysis of wind turbine power based on long short-term memory network and Gaussian mixture model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 229-244.
    15. Hasan, Kazi Nazmul & Preece, Robin & Milanović, Jovica V., 2019. "Existing approaches and trends in uncertainty modelling and probabilistic stability analysis of power systems with renewable generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 168-180.
    16. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    17. Zhang, Kequan & Qu, Zongxi & Dong, Yunxuan & Lu, Haiyan & Leng, Wennan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Wenyu, 2019. "Research on a combined model based on linear and nonlinear features - A case study of wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 814-830.

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