IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03513413.html

Vines climbing higher: Risk management for commodity futures markets using a regular vine copula approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hemei Li
  • Zhenya Liu

    (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

  • Shixuan Wang

Abstract

The volume of trading activity relating to China's commodity futures has grown rapidly over the course of the last decade. To improve risk management in China's commodity futures markets, this paper employs a regular vine (R‐vine) copula model to study the dependence structure of commodity futures and to enhance Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) forecast. In doing so, we find that China's commodity futures market is not centred on one category of commodity futures and the tail dependence between different categories of commodity futures varies significantly. Based on the dependence structure analysed using the R‐vine copula model, we forecast the VaR of individual indices, which are formed of several commodity futures, as well as forecasting the VaR of an equally‐weighted portfolio. Our method can outperform the standard GARCH‐VaR method in terms of VaR backtesting. The tool developed within this study will enable those involved in commodity futures markets to improve their risk management.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hemei Li & Zhenya Liu & Shixuan Wang, 2020. "Vines climbing higher: Risk management for commodity futures markets using a regular vine copula approach," Post-Print hal-03513413, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03513413
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Yinhong & Chen, Xiuwen & Chen, Zhensong, 2025. "Portfolio tail risk forecasting for international financial assets: A GARCH-MIDAS-R-Vine copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Semeyutin, Artur & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Xu, Bing, 2021. "Effects of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps on oil, gold, and copper markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Wang, Shixuan, 2022. "An R-vine copula analysis of non-ferrous metal futures with application in Value-at-Risk forecasting," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Lazar, Emese & Pan, Jingqi & Wang, Shixuan, 2024. "On the estimation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall at extreme levels," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2023. "Risk implications of dependence in the commodities: A copula-based analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03513413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.