Federal Funds Futures, Spot Rates, and Expected Changes in Monetary Policy
Market participants, researchers and policy makers often use Federal funds futures as a proxy for the market's expectation of changes in monetary policy. This paper examines how well the Fed funds futures rate predicts changes in the Fed fund target rate relative to what the spot rate predicts. This approach differs from previous tests of information content of futures prices. Tests for the information content of futures prices often look at how well the futures prices predict the changes in spot prices. These tests may be thought of as incremental in the sense that they test the incremental benefit of adding more information (the futures price) to the null model. In the case of Fed funds futures, we may want to know whether futures or spot rates have more information about future changes in the Fed funds target rate. The paper identifies two separate models of expected changes in monetary policy. One model uses information embedded in the spot rate, while the other uses information embedded in the futures rate. The paper uses an encompassing regression framework to test the relative ability of the two models in predicting changes in the target rate. Results indicate that the relative information content of the futures rate has varied over time. During the period of initial futures market formation, the futures and spot rates have the same information. More recently, however, the futures rate seems to contain more information about future changes in monetary policy than the spot rate contains.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/CEF99/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yanqin Fan & Qi Li, 1995. "Bootstrapping J-type tests for non-nested regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 107-112, May.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
- Campbell, John, 1987.
"Money Announcements, The Demand for Bank Reserves, and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate within the Statement Week,"
3220231, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Money Announcements, the Demand for Bank Reserves, and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate within the Statement Week," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 56-67, February.
- John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Money Announcements, the Demand for Bank Reserves and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate Within the Statement Week," NBER Working Papers 1806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 1995. "Day-of-the-week effects in federal funds rates: Further empirical findings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1265-1284, October.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980.
"Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses,"
378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission,"
NBER Working Papers
3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- C. Steven Cole & William Reichenstein, 1994. "Forecasting interest rates with eurodollar futures rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 37-50, 02.
- Avraham Kamara, 1988. "Market Trading Structures and Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Treasury- Bill Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 357-375.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
- Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
- John B. Carlson & Jean M. McIntire & James B. Thomson, 1995. "Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 20-30.
- Kamara, A., 1988. "Trading Structures And Asset Pricing: Evidence From The Treasury Bill Markets," Papers 169, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
- C. Steven Cole & Michael Impson & William Reichenstein, 1991. "Do treasury bill futures rates satisfy rational expectation properties?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 591-601, October.
- Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, . "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
- Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.