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Time Varying Discount Rates and Rent-Price Ratios In Farmland Markets

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  • Falk, Barry

Abstract

This paper constructs a version of Campbell and Shiller's dividend-price ratio model in order to study the consistency of farmland price behavior with the implications of a present value formulation that accounts for time-varying discount rates. The model imposes testable restrictions on the joint behavior of rent-price ratios and a linear combination of the ex-post required rate of return and rent growth rates. The restrictions are found to be inconsistent with annual Iowa farmland price and rent movements for the 1926-1986 sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk, Barry, 1990. "Time Varying Discount Rates and Rent-Price Ratios In Farmland Markets," ISU General Staff Papers 199006010700001213, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:199006010700001213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. Emanuel Melichar, 1979. "Capital Gains versus Current Income in the Farming Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 1085-1092.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    5. Falk, Barry L., 1992. "Predictable Excess Returns in Real Estate Markets: A Study of Iowa Farmland Values," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11092, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Allen M. Featherstone & Timothy G. Baker, 1987. "An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics: 1910–85," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 532-546.
    7. Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
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