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Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle

  • Andrew B. Abel

This paper derives simple closed-form solutions for expected rates of return on stocks and riskless one-period bills under the assumption that shocks to the growth rates of consumption and dividends are generated by a Markov regime-switching process. These closed-form solutions are used to show that the Markov regime-switching process exacerbates the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle. Three empirical examples illustrate the magnitude of the effects of Markov regime switching on equilibrium expected returns.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4110.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4110.

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Date of creation: Jun 1992
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Publication status: published as Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26, 3, August 1994, Part I), pp. 345- 361
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4110
Note: AP
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Clark, 1991. "The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments," NBER Working Papers 3752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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