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Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle

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  • Andrew B. Abel

Abstract

This paper derives simple closed-form solutions for expected rates of return on stocks and riskless one-period bills under the assumption that shocks to the growth rates of consumption and dividends are generated by a Markov regime-switching process. These closed-form solutions are used to show that the Markov regime-switching process exacerbates the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle. Three empirical examples illustrate the magnitude of the effects of Markov regime switching on equilibrium expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Abel, 1992. "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4110
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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    4. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    5. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin J. Lansing, 2011. "Asset pricing with concentrated ownership of capital," Working Paper 2011/18, Norges Bank.
    2. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1996. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-265, September.
    3. Mele, Antonio, 2004. "General Properties of Rational Stock-Market Fluctuations," Economics Series 153, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Kim, Dongcheol & Wizman, Thierry A., 1996. "Asset pricing models with and without consumption data: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 267-301, September.
    5. Kevin J. Lansing, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 67-103, October.
    6. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
    7. Rotheli, Tobias F., 1998. "Pattern recognition and procedurally rational expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 71-90, September.
    8. Garcia, R. & Bonomo, M., 1993. "Disappointment Aversion as a Solution to the Equity Premium and the Risk- Free Rate Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche 9334, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    9. Brennan, Michael & Xia, Yihong, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3zw2w634, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    10. Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 167-195, May.
    11. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    13. Stefano d’Addona & Christos Giannikos, 2014. "Asset pricing and the role of macroeconomic volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 197-215, May.
    14. M. C. Freeman & I. R. Davidson, 1999. "Estimating the equity premium," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 236-246.
    15. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
    16. Nelson C. Mark & S.G. Cecchetti & P-s. Lam, 1997. "Asset Pricing under Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," Working Papers 017, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Marco Bonomo & René Garcia & Nour Meddahi & Roméo Tédongap, 2011. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long-run Volatility Risk, and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 82-122.
    18. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
    19. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    20. Pakoš, Michal, 2013. "Long-run risk and hidden growth persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1911-1928.
    21. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    23. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.

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