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Inflated Expectations and Natural Resource Booms: Evidence from Kazakhstan

  • Gerhard Toews
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    In this paper we identify the effect of an oil price boom on households' satisfaction with income. In a natural experiment the increase in the oil price is used as an exogenous shock affecting households located in the oil and gas rich region of Kazakhstan. to evaluate the effect we use the Household Budget Survery of Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2005, a quarterly, unbalanced panel of 12,000 households. An important feature of this survey is that household heads were asked to report their "satisfaction with household income" on a scale from 1 to 5. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in the oil price decreased household's satisfaction with income by 2% with a lag of two quarters. We argue that this is due to peoples' inflated expectations regarding their income. this result highlights the importance of managing expectations in a rapidly changing economic environment.

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    File URL: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP2013109.pdf
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    Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 109.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:109
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
    Web page: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/
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    1. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Do oil windfalls improve living standards?: evidence from Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48086, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Akram Esanov & Karlygash Khuralbayeva, 2010. "Riccardian Curse of the Resource Boom: The case of Kazakhstan 2000-2008," OxCarre Working Papers 043, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
    4. McBride, Michael, 2010. "Money, happiness, and aspirations: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 262-276, June.
    5. Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Paul Frijters, 2004. "How Important is Methodology for the estimates of the determinants of Happiness?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 641-659, 07.
    6. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    7. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2006. "Some Uses of Happiness Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, Winter.
    8. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Will raising the incomes of all increase the happiness of all?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-47, June.
    9. Boris Najman & Richard Pomfret & Gael Raballand & Patricia Sourdin, 2005. "How are Oil Revenues Redistributed in an Oil Economy? The Case of Kazakhstan," School of Economics Working Papers 2005-18, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    10. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Kambhampati, Uma, 2008. "The determinants of individual happiness in Kazakhstan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 285-299, September.
    11. Guriev, Sergei & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2009. "(Un)Happiness in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 7258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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