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Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve

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Abstract

What level of central bank reserves satiates banks’ demand for liquidity? We estimate the slope of the reserve demand curve in the U.S. over 2010–2024 using a time-varying instrumental-variable approach at the daily frequency. When reserves exceed 12-13 percent of banks’ assets, demand for reserves is satiated and reserves are abundant; below this threshold, the curve’s slope becomes increasingly negative as reserves decline from ample to scarce. We also find that reserve demand has shifted over time, both vertically and horizontally, and identify important drivers of vertical shifts. Our methodology works well out-of-sample and can assess reserve ampleness in real time.

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  • Gara Afonso & Domenico Giannone & Gabriele La Spada & John C. Williams, 2022. "Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve," Staff Reports 1019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:94278
    Note: Revised May 2025.
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    1. Gara Afonso & Roc Armenter & Benjamin Lester, 2019. "A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 177-204, July.
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    10. Kyungmin Kim & Antoine Martin & Ed Nosal, 2020. "Can the U.S. Interbank Market Be Revived?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1645-1689, October.
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    12. Andrew Lee Smith, 2019. "Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-34.
    13. James A. Clouse & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves," Working Paper Series WP-2018-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Schaffer & Nimrod Segev, 2023. "Quantitative Easing, Bank Lending, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2023.01, Bank of Israel.
    2. Egemen Eren & Timothy Jackson & Giovanni Lombardo, 2024. "The macroprudential role of central bank balance sheets," Working Papers 202408, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    3. Egemen Eren & Timothy Jackson & Giovanni Lombardo, 2024. "The macroprudential role of central bank balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 1173, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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