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Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects

  • D'Agostino, Antonello
  • Mendicino, Caterina
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    This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structural VAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the effect of expectation shocks on the realized unemployment rate have been particularly large during the most recent recession. Unanticipated changes in expectations contributed to the gradual increase in the persistence of the unemployment rate and to the decline in the correlation between the inflation and the unemployment rate over time. Our results are robust to the introduction of financial variables in the model.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53607/1/MPRA_paper_53607.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53607.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53607
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    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    2. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    4. Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 11/121, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
    6. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    7. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    8. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:61-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dmitri Koustas, 2013. "Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," NBER Working Papers 19600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 19598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2010. "Expectations and economic fluctuations: an analysis using survey data," Working Paper Series 2010-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
    15. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
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