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Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects

Author

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  • D'Agostino, Antonello
  • Mendicino, Caterina

Abstract

This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structural VAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility, as in Cogley and Sargent (2005) and Primiceri (2005). We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the effect of expectation shocks on the realized unemployment rate have been particularly large during the most recent recession. Unanticipated changes in expectations contributed to the gradual increase in the persistence of the unemployment rate and to the decline in the correlation between the inflation and the unemployment rate over time. Our results are robust to the introduction of financial variables in the model. JEL Classification: C32, E24, E32

Suggested Citation

  • D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2015. "Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects," Working Paper Series 1776, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151776
    Note: 1774743
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    Cited by:

    1. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2013. "Confidence and economic activity: the case of Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic fluctuations; stochastic volatility; survey expectations; time varying vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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