The Bad Government: A Source of Uncertainty and Business Fluctuations
Uncertainty represented by volatilities in equity markets has been observed to be time-variable and lead output fluctuations. In the rational expectation framework, uncertainty with this nature needs exogenous variables with time-varying volatilities, but technology, tastes and fiscal and monetary policies do not seem suitable for such variables. The paper contends that supervisions and law enforcement that reduce cheatings in contracts is one of the ultimate sources of uncertainty. The cheating plays an important role for uncertainty since it is the origin of noisy price observations that makes an economy uncertain in the framework of rational expectation approximate equilibria.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bester, Helmut & Strausz, Roland, 2001. "Contracting with Imperfect Commitment and the Revelation Principle: The Single Agent Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 1077-98, July.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanford J. Grossman, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 541-559.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
- Michael M. Hutchison, 1997. "Financial crises and bank supervision: new directions for Japan?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec12.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001.
"Prudential Supervision: Why Is It Important and What Are the Issues?,"
in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 1-30
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Prudential Supervision: Why Is It Important and What are the Issues?," NBER Working Papers 7926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Francis, 2003. "Governance and Financial Fragility: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries," Staff Working Papers 03-34, Bank of Canada.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 1999.
"Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility,"
1999.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998.
"Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0407010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.