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Mark W. Watson

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Montagu Norman: The View from St Clere
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2018-11-05 09:00:00
  2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Matching Theory and Data: Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2009-09-27 06:45:04
  3. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Michael Woodford: Revolución y Evolución en la Macroeconomía del siglo XX
      by Enrique Bour in Foco Económico on 2011-03-16 17:00:00
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Bernanke: Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2007-07-11 01:08:00
  5. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fischer: U.S. Inflation Developments
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2015-09-02 14:00:33
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Fed: From forward guidance to data dependence
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-12-14 19:45:45
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 15:30:00
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Moderately well understood : The Great Moderation is evident, but its causes are complex
      by ? in FRED blog on 2017-10-05 18:00:27
    2. Et si la Grande Modération ne s’était jamais achevée ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-04-19 20:17:00
  9. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Another Global Warming Uh-Oh
      by Dave in voluntaryXchange on 2007-11-29 23:52:00
  10. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Big Data, Rich Data, Many Predictors, and Data Reduction
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2012-07-05 21:19:40
    2. Dimension Reduction With Principal Components
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2014-05-24 01:50:00
    3. Forecasting and Data Analysis – Principal Component Regression
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2014-02-26 23:29:37
    4. Principal Components
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2012-07-11 02:37:19
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Mercado acionário e desemprego
      by Roberto Ushisima in Empresas e Mercados on 2011-03-13 08:54:00
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Moderately well understood : The Great Moderation is evident, but its causes are complex
      by ? in FRED blog on 2017-10-05 18:00:27
    2. Et si la Grande Modération ne s’était jamais achevée ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-04-19 20:17:00
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Problems in Forecasting Inflation
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2015-09-11 05:15:00
    2. The FOMC is coming
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-09-06 17:04:06

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Time Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility
  4. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  5. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  7. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 128-157, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
  10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Time Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility
  11. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Big Data
  12. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Watson, Mark W, 1989. "MTS: A Review," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 205-206, April-Jun.

    Mentioned in:

    1. MTS: A review (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1989) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 128-157, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation (AEJ:MA 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Vector Autoregressions (JEP 2001) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper Series 2019-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Pauline Affeldt & Tomaso Duso & Klaus Gugler & Joanna Piechucka, 2021. "Market Concentration in Europe: Evidence from Antitrust Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8866, CESifo.
    2. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," Working Paper 24-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Levchenko, Andrei & di Giovanni, Julian & Mejean, Isabelle, 2020. "Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sen, A., 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2019. "Investment Networks, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," 2019 Meeting Papers 1158, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    8. Brad R. Humphreys & Scott Schuh & Corey J.M. Williams, "undated". "Learning by Doing, Productivity, and Growth: New Evidence on the Link between Micro and Macro Data," Working Papers 24-02, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    9. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    10. Bunel, Simon & Bijnens, Gert & Botelho, Vasco & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lamo, Ana & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & Sellner, Richard & Strobel, Johannes & Anghel, Brindusa, 2024. "Digitalisation and productivity," Occasional Paper Series 339, European Central Bank.

  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    2. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    3. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2022. "Understanding the food component of inflation," Papers 2212.09380, arXiv.org.
    4. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/291, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    6. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    8. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    9. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    10. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    11. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    12. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    13. Rodnyansky, Alexander & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Wales, Daniel, 2022. "Product quality, measured inflation and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2680, European Central Bank.
    14. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. López-Salido, J David & Loria, Francesca, 2019. "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Martín Uribe, 2020. "Staggered Price Indexation," NBER Working Papers 27657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    18. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    19. John O’Trakoun, 2023. "An alternative measure of core inflation: the Trimmed Persistence PCE price index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 205-223, October.
    20. Waheed, Irtiza Imran, 2020. "Phillips Curve in Pakistan: A Graphical and Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 119097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Sanjay R. Singh & Nicolas Caramp, 2020. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 336, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    22. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.
    23. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2021. "Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?," Working Papers 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    24. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

  3. Ulrich K. Müller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 26593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Britz, Wolfgang & Jafari, Yaghoob & Nekhay, Olexandr & Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven, 2020. "The GDP Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages," RFF Working Paper Series 18-17, Resources for the Future.
    3. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Can today's and tomorrow's world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 21.15, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Wolfgang Britz & Yaghoob Jafari & Alexandr Nekhay & Roberto Roson, 2020. "Modeling Trade and Income Distribution in Six Developing Countries A dynamic general equilibrium analysis up to the year 2050," Working Papers 2020:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

  4. , 2018. "The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City," Technical Briefings TB 18-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Wenhua Di & Yichen Su, 2021. "Conspicuous Consumption: Vehicle Purchases by Non-Prime Consumers," Working Papers 2107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," NBER Working Papers 24216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Masahiko Shibamoto & Shoka Hayaki & Yoshitaka Ogisu, 2021. "COVID-19 Infection Spread and Human Mobility," Discussion Paper Series DP2021-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Feb 2022.
    2. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2023. "Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2022. "Local projection variance impulse response," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1219-1244, March.
    4. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2019. "Firm expectations and economic activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7623, CESifo.
    5. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    6. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2019. "Projection estimators for structural impulse responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    7. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2019. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Same, but different? Testing monetary policy shock measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    10. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can we use high-frequency yield data to better understand the effects of monetary policy and its communication? Yes and no!," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-03 Classification-E4, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    11. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    12. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Angelini, Giovanni & Fanelli, Luca, 2018. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," MPRA Paper 93864, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2019.
    15. Reinelt, Timo & Meier, Matthias, 2020. "Monetary policy, markup dispersion, and aggregate TFP," Working Paper Series 2427, European Central Bank.
    16. Aastveit, Knut Are & Albuquerque, Bruno & Anundsen, André, 2020. "Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms," Bank of England working papers 844, Bank of England.
    17. Tiziana Assenza & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève & Stefanie Huber, 2024. "From Buzz to Bust: How Fake News Shapes the Business Cycle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 287, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    18. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2018. "Does a big bazooka matter? Central bank balance-sheet policies and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2197, European Central Bank.
    19. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2022. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," Working Papers 22-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2023. "Dynamic deconvolution and identification of independent autoregressive sources," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 151-180, March.
    21. Metiu, Norbert, 2020. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Discussion Papers 52/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Renato Faccini & Eran Yashiv, 2022. "The importance of hiring frictions in business cycles," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1101-1143, July.
    23. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs," Working Papers 18-25/R, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    24. Sarah Arndt & Zeno Enders, 2023. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10839, CESifo.
    25. Patrik Guggenberge & Frank Kleibergen & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "A Powerful Subvector Anderson Rubin Test in Linear Instrumental Variables Regression with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Economics Series Working Papers 960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Papers 2018/220, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2021. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2021-02 Classification-E3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    28. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2018. "Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1749, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    29. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Honda, Jiro & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2021. "How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    31. Atsushi Inoue & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Significance Bands for Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2023-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Süssmuth, Bernd & Wieschemeyer, Matthias, 2022. "Taxation and the distributional impact of inflation: The U.S. post-war experience," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    33. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    34. Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2023. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Tradeoffs," Working Papers 1404, Barcelona School of Economics.
    35. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Priit Jeenas & Ricardo Lagos, 2024. "Q-Monetary Transmission," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(3), pages 971-1012.
    37. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    38. Matthew Read, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign‐restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 329-358, September.
    39. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    40. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    41. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Mathias Klein & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1901, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    42. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    43. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    44. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    45. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
    46. Holtemöller, Oliver & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kwak, Boreum, 2020. "Exchange rates and the information channel of monetary policy," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    216. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
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    219. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "US monetary policy spillovers to European banks," Working Paper Series 2876, European Central Bank.
    220. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    224. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2249-2282, September.
    225. Haroon Mumtaz & Michele Piffer, 2022. "Impulse response estimation via fexible local projections," Working Papers 938, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    226. Dabla-Norris, Era & Lima, Frederico, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of tax rate and base changes: Evidence from fiscal consolidations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    227. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    228. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    229. Hiroyuki Kubota & Mototsugu Shintani, 2020. "High-frequency Identification of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-502, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    230. Martin Baumgaertner, 2020. "Information or Uncertainty Shocks?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202041, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    231. Fève, Patrick & Assenza, Tiziana & Collard, Fabrice & Huber, Stefanie, 2024. "From Buzz to Bust: How Fake News Shapes the Business Cycle," TSE Working Papers 24-1516, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    232. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    233. Luca Fanelli & Antonio Marsi, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: A Tale of Three Shocks," Working Papers wp1164, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    234. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2021. "Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    235. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    236. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    237. Renzhi, Nuobu, 2023. "Household net saving positions and unconventional monetary policy transmission: Evidence from Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    238. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2023. "When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: Monetary Policy Spillovers to Asian Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 519-540, July.
    239. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: evidence from France," ECON - Working Papers 434, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    240. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    241. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    242. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    243. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    244. Berthold, Brendan, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and risk aversion shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    245. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "Comment on "What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 232-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    246. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    247. Rieth, Malte & Wittich, Jana, 2020. "The impact of ECB policy on structural reforms," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 122.
    248. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    249. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    250. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    251. Syed M. Hussain & Lin Liu, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 78-107, February.
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  6. Robert Hall & Mark Watson & James Stock & John Fernald, 2017. "The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009," 2017 Meeting Papers 610, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.

  7. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Working Paper Series 2017-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "What if supply-side policies are not enough ? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458460, HAL.
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    4. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
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    18. Callum Jones, 2018. "Household Leverage and the Recession," 2018 Meeting Papers 933, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Salas, Sergio & Odell, Kathleen, 2023. "Why are credit-driven crises deep and long-lasting?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 233-246.
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    21. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2020. "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?," Working Paper Series 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    28. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper Series 2019-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    30. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The inexorable recoveries of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 15-25.
    31. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 4, pages 1-4.
    32. Kant, Chander, 2018. "Privatization and growth: natural experiments of European economies in transition," MPRA Paper 90302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. David Kiefer & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "Secular Stagnation and Income Distribution Dynamics," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 189-207, June.
    34. Ioanna Bardaka & Ioannis Bournakis & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2018. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: how harmful is austerity?," Working Papers 255, Bank of Greece.
    35. Mariarosaria Comunale & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen & Soroosh Soofi-Siavash, 2019. "Convergence and growth decomposition: an analysis on Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.
    36. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    37. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2021. "Okun’s law revisited in the time–frequency domain: introducing unemployment into a wavelet-based control model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2635-2662, November.
    38. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    39. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2020. "Corporate Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence on the Advanced Economy Investment Slowdown," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    40. Saibene, Giacomo, 2019. "The corporate saving glut," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    41. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2017. "Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2017/250, International Monetary Fund.
    42. John Fernald, 2017. "Is there an easy cure for low growth?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 175-180, July.
    43. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Abhi Gupta & Pearl Li & Erica Moszkowski, 2018. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," Staff Reports 844, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Saroj Bhattarai & Felipe Schwartzman & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," Working Paper 19-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    45. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & David M. Byrne, 2017. "Prices of high-tech products, mismeasurement, and pace of innovation," AEI Economics Working Papers 933826, American Enterprise Institute.
    46. Joachim Jungherr & Immo Schott, 2022. "Slow Debt, Deep Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 224-259, January.
    47. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2019. "Are long-run output growth rates falling?," Working Papers 2019.07, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    48. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2017. "The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-34.
    49. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
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    54. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2018. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2140, European Central Bank.
    55. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    56. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2020. "Okun’s Law across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
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    64. Sergio Salas & Kathleen Odell, 2020. "Financial Deepening, Credit Crises, Human Capital and Growth," Working Papers 2020-01, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
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    67. Ben S. Bernanke, 2019. "Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 171-181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    68. Cirera,Xavier & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Grover,Arti Goswami & Iacovone,Leonardo & Medvedev,Denis & Pereira Lopez,Mariana De La Paz & Reyes,Santiago, 2021. "Firm Recovery during COVID-19 : Six Stylized Facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9810, The World Bank.
    69. Stanley Fischer, 2017. "The Low Level of Global Real Interest Rates : a speech at the Conference to Celebrate Arminio Fraga’s 60 Years, Casa das Garcas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 31, 2017," Speech 966, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. Felipe Alves, 2022. "Job Ladder and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 22-14, Bank of Canada.
    71. Gordon, Robert J., 2018. "Declining American economic growth despite ongoing innovation," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-12.
    72. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Jorgenson, Dale & Ho, Mun & Samuels, Jon, 2019. "Recent U.S. economic performance and prospects for future growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 459-476.
    74. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?," NBER Working Papers 24554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    75. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Is American manufacturing in decline?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 107-123, July.
    76. John Fernald, 2018. "Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 138-148, Fall.
    77. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    78. Zhang, Wen, 2019. "Deciphering the causes for the post-1990 slow output recoveries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 28-34.
    79. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    80. Bernard Dumas & Marcel Savioz, 2023. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1615-1657.
    81. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    82. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    83. Crouzet, Nicolas & Eberly, Janice, 2021. "Intangibles, markups, and the measurement of productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 92-109.
    84. Beckworth, David, 2017. "Permanent versus temporary monetary base Injections: Implications for past and future Fed Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 110-126.
    85. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    86. OGAWA Kazuo & Elmer STERKEN & TOKUTSU Ichiro, 2019. "Why Is Investment So Weak Despite High Profitability? A panel study of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 19009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    87. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    88. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    89. Bart van Ark & Venables, 2021. "A concerted effort to tackle the productivity puzzle during the post-COVID era," Working Papers 001, The Productivity Institute.
    90. Nicolas Crouzet & Janice C. Eberly, 2019. "Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles," NBER Working Papers 25869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    91. Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    92. Bharman Gulati & Stephan Weiler, 2021. "Risk, Recessions, and Resilience: Towards Sustainable Local Labor Markets through Employment Portfolio Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.
    93. Gordon, Robert J., 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears To Be Accelerating?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    94. Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Mućk, 2022. "Are Ideas Really Getting Harder To Find? R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function," KAE Working Papers 2022-071, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    95. John C. Williams, 2017. "The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    96. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    97. Alan B. Krueger, 2017. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 1-87.

  8. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Low-Frequency Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 21564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. García, Javier Sánchez & Rambaud, Salvador Cruz, 2023. "Macrofinancial determinants of volatility transmission in a network of European sovereign debt markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Galstyan, Vahagn, 2023. "Understanding the Joint Dynamics of Inflation and Wage Growth in the Euro Area," Research Technical Papers 11/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. La Vecchia, Davide & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2019. "Saddlepoint approximations for short and long memory time series: A frequency domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 578-592.
    4. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2020. "Inflation in the G7 Countries: Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8349, CESifo.
    4. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
    5. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2019. "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30657, December.
    6. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    10. Matteo Mogliani & Anna Simoni, 2024. "Bayesian Bi-level Sparse Group Regressions for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Papers 2404.02671, arXiv.org.
    11. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    12. Pym Manopimoke & Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2016. "Trend Inflation Estimates for Thailand from Disaggregated Data," PIER Discussion Papers 51, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Arabinda Basistha, 2023. "Estimation of short‐run predictive factor for US growth using state employment data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 34-50, January.
    16. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Mark Watson & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2019. "Sectoral and Aggregate Structural Change," 2019 Meeting Papers 532, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends in unobserved components models," Papers 2005.03988, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    19. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    20. Forbes, Kristin & Kirkham, Lewis & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "A trendy approach to UK inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 49, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    21. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    23. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    24. Saeed Zaman, 2019. "Cyclical versus Acyclical Inflation: A Deeper Dive," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    25. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper Series 2019-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts," Working Paper 1316, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    27. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    28. Zhiyong Fan & Yushan Hu & Penglong Zhang, 2022. "Measuring China's core inflation for forecasting purposes: taking persistence as weight," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 93-111, July.
    29. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
    30. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    31. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    32. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    33. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber, 2020. "Real-time Inflation Forecasting Using Non-linear Dimension Reduction Techniques," Papers 2012.08155, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    34. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2019. "The Natural Level of Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 26184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Richard Audoly & Martín Almuzara & Davide Melcangi, 2023. "A Measure of Core Wage Inflation," Staff Reports 1067, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    36. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    37. Günes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    38. Ladi R. Bala-Keffi & Donald G. Mbaka & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Alternative Core Inflation Measures in Nigeria: An Examination," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 112-120, July.
    39. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    40. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    41. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    42. Joshua C. C. Chan & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2023. "High-Dimensional Conditionally Gaussian State Space Models with Missing Data," Papers 2302.03172, arXiv.org.
    43. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    44. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    45. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
    46. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    47. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    49. Huw Dixon & Jeremy Franklin & Stephen Millard, 2023. "Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 805-829, August.
    50. Kapinos, Pavel & Kishor, N. Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Dynamic comovement among banks, systemic risk, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    51. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    52. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
    53. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.
    54. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    55. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    56. Fernando Zarzosa Valdivia, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics in the ABC (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) countries," Ensayos de Política Económica, Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina., vol. 3(2), pages 77-99, Octubre.
    57. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    58. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. John O’Trakoun, 2023. "An alternative measure of core inflation: the Trimmed Persistence PCE price index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 205-223, October.
    60. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    61. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016. "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper 68704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    63. Ferreira, Pedro Costa & Mattos, Daiane Marcolino de & Ardeo, Vagner Laerte, 2017. "Triple-Filter core inflation: a measure of the inflation trajectory," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    64. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    65. Christian Garciga & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers 24-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    66. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    67. Aleksandra Hałka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2018. "What core inflation indicators measure?," NBP Working Papers 294, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    68. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    69. Dixon, Huw & Franklin, Jeremy & Millard, Stephen, 2021. "Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    70. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    71. Lake, A., 2020. "Optimal Feasible Expectations in Economics and Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    72. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2021. "Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?," Working Papers 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    73. Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) & Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia [Моделирование Инфляционных Процессов В России]," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    74. Blasques, F. & Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2019. "Accelerating score-driven time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 359-376.
    75. Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2018. "A Disaggregated Analysis of the Impact of Output Gap on Inflation and Implications for Monetary Policy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 668-683.
    76. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    77. Marcelo A. T. Aragão, 2021. "Blurred Crystal Ball: investigating the forecasting challenges after a great exogenous shock," Working Papers Series 549, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    78. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectorial Inflation in the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 9, pages 317-344, Central Bank of Chile.
    79. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    80. Viacheslav Kramkov, 2023. "Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps112, Bank of Russia.
    81. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "Asymptotics for Time-Varying Vector MA(∞) Processes," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  10. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Easterly,William R. & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "Leader Value Added : Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9215, The World Bank.
    2. Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," Working Papers hal-03812816, HAL.
    3. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline Kim, 2021. "U.S. Presidential Election Polls and the Economic Prospects of China and Mexico," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2021-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    4. Beyer, Deborah B. & Fan, Zaifeng S., 2023. "The calming effects of conflict: The impact of partisan conflict on market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Bachmann, Oliver & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Seiberlich, Ruben, 2019. "Partisan bias in inflation expectations," Munich Reprints in Economics 78249, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," MPRA Paper 74935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2018. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," NBER Working Papers 25292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Kilman, Josefin, 2021. "A Study of the Romer and Romer Monetary Policy Shocks Using Revised Data," Working Papers 2021:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    9. Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6444, CESifo.
    10. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    11. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    12. Keita, Sekou & Mandon, Pierre, 2018. "Give a fish or teach fishing? Partisan affiliation of U.S. governors and the poverty status of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 65-96.
    13. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2018. "Consumptor economicus: How do consumers form expectations on economic variables?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 254-275.
    14. Warwick Anderson & Jędrzej Białkowski & Moritz Wagner, 2023. "The midterm election effect on US stock returns: Some practical considerations for investors," Working Papers in Economics 23/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    15. Thiem, Christopher, 2018. "Cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 744, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Samar Ashour & David A. Rakowski & Salil K. Sarkar, 2019. "U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 523-540, October.
    17. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    18. Niklas Potrafke, 2016. "Partisan Politics: The Empirical Evidence from OECD Panel Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6024, CESifo.
    19. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2018. "Politics and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    21. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Ernest Dautovic, 2018. "The weight of the median voter ageing on public debt," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 69-92, March.
    23. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2021. "The Cost of Populism: Evidence from history," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 015, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    24. Ondrej Schneider, 2019. "Partisan Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 8014, CESifo.
    25. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of Trump," Policy Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5-6), pages 580-591, November.
    26. Robert Kirkby, 2023. "Quantitative Macroeconomics: Lessons Learned from Fourteen Replications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 875-896, February.
    27. William Easterly & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Leader Value Added: Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders," NBER Working Papers 27153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT," EconPol Working Paper 56, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    29. Chengxue Yao & Fan Jiang & Liang Guo, 2023. "Fixed investment or financial assets investment: Evidence from political uncertainty in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 427-450, March.
    30. Chan, Kam Fong & Marsh, Terry, 2021. "Asset prices, midterm elections, and political uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 276-296.
    31. Hoda Aboushanab & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Jannik Sielmann, 2020. "Economists Panel: Biden, a Carrier of Hope," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 40-43, December.
    32. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    33. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    34. Montone, Maurizio, 2022. "Does the U.S. president affect the stock market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    35. Philipp Hauber & Stormy-Annika Mildner & Galina Kolev & Jürgen Matthes & Sonja Peterson & Reimund Schwarze & Christiane Lemke & Martin, Thunert & Laura von Daniels & Josef Braml & Johannes Varwick & D, 2021. "The US under Joe Biden: U-Turn or “America First Light”?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(01), pages 03-37, January.
    36. Rustam Ibragimov & Jihyun Kim & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New robust inference for predictive regressions," Papers 2006.01191, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    37. William J Berger & Adam Sales, 2020. "Testing epistemic democracy’s claims for majority rule," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 22-35, February.
    38. Das, Kuntal K. & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2023. "Stock liquidity and firm-level political risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    39. Sy, Oumar & Zaman, Ashraf Al, 2020. "Is the presidential premium spurious?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-104.
    40. Lukas Menkhoff, 2022. "Wohlstand schaffen oder verteilen? Ein kurzer Blick auf Wahl- und Regierungsprogramme [Creating or Distributing Prosperity? A Quick Look at Election and Government Programs]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 374-378, May.
    41. Chrétien, Stéphane & Fu, Hsuan, 2023. "Presidential cycles in international equity flows and returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    42. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    43. Dybowski, T.P. & Adämmer, P., 2018. "The economic effects of U.S. presidential tax communication: Evidence from a correlated topic model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 511-525.
    44. Michael A. Brown & Michael Pugliese, 2016. "Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 260-265, October.
    45. Dodge Cahan & Luisa Dörr & Niklas Potrafke & Luisa Dörr, 2019. "Government ideology and monetary policy in OECD countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 7549, CESifo.
    46. Ursula Muench & Armin Nassehi & Joe Kaeser & Knut Bergmann & Matthias Diermeier & Florian Dorn & David Gstrein & Florian Neumeier & Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch & Kerim Peren , 2024. "Wohlstand in Gefahr? Ursachen und Folgen von Populismus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(03), pages 03-32, March.
    47. Anderson, Warwick & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Wagner, Moritz, 2023. "Midterm elections and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
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    49. Coulombe, Raphaelle G., 2021. "The electoral origin of government spending shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    50. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
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    52. Ramón E. López, 2018. "Power in Economics: Growth, Inequality and Politics," Working Papers wp476, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
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    54. Youngsoo Kim & Jung Chul Park, 2022. "Presidential power and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 455-499, June.
    55. Samar Ashour & David Rakowski & Salil K. Sarkar, 2021. "Currency risk exposure and the presidential effect in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 469-485, July.
    56. Chen, Zilin & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dashan & Wang, Liyao, 2023. "Presidential economic approval rating and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 106-131.

  11. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability," Scholarly Articles 28469786, Harvard University Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    2. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2015. "Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps," Discussion Papers 2015-05, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Ma, Shujie & Su, Liangjun, 2018. "Estimation of large dimensional factor models with an unknown number of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 1-29.
    4. C. Glocker & G. Sestieri & P. Towbin, 2017. "Time-varying fiscal spending multipliers in the UK," Working papers 643, Banque de France.
    5. Riccardo Borghi & Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "The dynamics of factor loadings in the cross-section of returns," CREATES Research Papers 2018-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2016. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 437-479, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Barigozzi, Matteo & Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2018. "Simultaneous multiple change-point and factor analysis for high-dimensional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 187-225.
    8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    10. Duan, Jiangtao & Bai, Jushan & Han, Xu, 2023. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of break point in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 209-236.
    11. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    12. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc & Soccorsi, Stefano & von Sachs, Rainer, 2021. "Time-varying general dynamic factor models and the measurement of financial connectedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 324-343.
    13. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    14. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
    15. Dalibor Stevanovic & Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo, 2014. "Selection of the number of factors in presence of structural instability: a Monte Carlo study," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-44, CIRANO.
    16. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    17. Han, Xu & Inoue, Atsushi, 2015. "Tests For Parameter Instability In Dynamic Factor Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 1117-1152, October.
    18. Yamamoto, Yohei & Tanaka, Shinya, 2015. "Testing for factor loading structural change under common breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 187-206.
    19. Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2017. "On time-varying factor models: Estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 84-101.
    20. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan José & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1141, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    21. Seung C. Ahn & Young H. Lee, 2014. "Major League Baseball Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(5), pages 451-477, October.
    22. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    23. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    25. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using approximate factor models with outliers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 267-291.
    26. Markus Pelger & Ruoxuan Xiong, 2018. "State-Varying Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Papers 1807.02248, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    27. Wu, Jianhong, 2021. "Estimation of high dimensional factor model with multiple threshold-type regime shifts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    28. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    29. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
    30. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(4), pages 1511-1543.
    31. Glocker, Christian & Sestieri, Giulia & Towbin, Pascal, 2019. "Time-varying government spending multipliers in the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    32. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    33. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao & Fa Wang, 2016. "The Identification and Estimation of a Large Factor Model with Structural Instability," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 194, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    34. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Working Papers unige:125031, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    35. Xialu Liu & Elynn Y. Chen, 2022. "Identification and estimation of threshold matrix‐variate factor models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1383-1417, September.
    36. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    38. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Testing for structural changes in large dimensional factor models via discrete Fourier transform," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 302-331.
    39. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona School of Economics.
    40. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2014. "In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 12-30.
    41. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    42. Nivín, Rafael & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Estimación de un Índice de Condiciones Financieras para el Perú," Working Papers 2019-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    43. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    44. Siklos, Pierre L., 2021. "The macroeconomic response to real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    45. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Evidence of Instabilities from Time-Varying Factor Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2020-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    46. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
    47. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    48. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
    49. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    50. Massacci, Daniele, 2017. "Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 101-129.
    51. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2017. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Papers 1708.02786, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    52. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    53. Evan Totty, 2017. "The Effect Of Minimum Wages On Employment: A Factor Model Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1712-1737, October.
    54. Duván Humberto Cataño & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Daniel Peña, 2019. "Wavelet Estimation for Dynamic Factor Models with Time-Varying Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2019-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    55. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    56. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis," Working Papers No 05/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    57. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    58. Chen, Sanpan & Cui, Guowei & Zhang, Jianhua, 2017. "On testing for structural break of coefficients in factor-augmented regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 141-145.
    59. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    60. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    61. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    62. Bai, Jushan & Han, Xu & Shi, Yutang, 2020. "Estimation and inference of change points in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 66-100.
    63. Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk & Hillebrand, Eric & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Consistent estimation of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 535-562.
    64. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    65. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    66. Baltagi, Badi H. & Kao, Chihwa & Wang, Fa, 2021. "Estimating and testing high dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 349-365.
    67. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2023. "Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence of instabilities from time‐varying factor loadings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 857-877, September.
    68. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    69. Jaeheon Jung, 2019. "Estimating a Large Covariance Matrix in Time-varying Factor Models," Papers 1910.11965, arXiv.org.
    70. Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Eric Hillebrand & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2015-61, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    71. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    72. Ma, Chenchen & Tu, Yundong, 2023. "Group fused Lasso for large factor models with multiple structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 132-154.
    73. Wei, Jie & Zhang, Yonghui, 2020. "A time-varying diffusion index forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    74. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2020. "The People's Bank of China's response to the coronavirus pandemic: A quantitative assessment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    75. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

  12. Mark Watson, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts," Annual Meeting Plenary 2013-3, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ian Dew-Becker & Rhys Bidder, 2015. "Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario," 2015 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Kaihua Deng & Chang-Jin Kim, 2015. "Predicting Stock Returns — The Information Content Of Predictors Across Horizons," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-27, December.

  13. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction," NBER Working Papers 18870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    2. Ian Dew-Becker & Rhys Bidder, 2015. "Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario," 2015 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Marek Chudý & Erhard Reschenhofer, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Adjusted Band Regression," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Max Roser, 2016. "Carbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios," Economics Series Working Papers 810, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick & Meinerding, Christoph, 2016. "Investment-specific shocks, business cycles, and asset prices," SAFE Working Paper Series 129, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim & Otterson, James, 2023. "Quantifying the uncertainty of long-term macroeconomic projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kazuo Nishimura & Florian Pelgrin & Alain Venditti, 2023. "Medium term endogenous fluctuations in three-sector optimal growth models," AMSE Working Papers 2235, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Kaihua Deng & Chang-Jin Kim, 2015. "Predicting Stock Returns — The Information Content Of Predictors Across Horizons," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Simon Dietz & Bruno Lanz, 2019. "Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run," IRENE Working Papers 19-09, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Florian Pelgrin & Alain Venditti, 2020. "On the long-run fluctuations of inheritance in two-sector OLG models," Working Papers halshs-03080407, HAL.
    12. John Fernald, 2017. "Is there an easy cure for low growth?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 175-180, July.
    13. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    14. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/082, International Monetary Fund.
    15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    16. Kurt Graden Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2023. "Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias," Working Papers 23-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
    18. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
    19. Jonathan Lecznar & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Robert Sharp, 2013. "Characterizing the Unusual Path of U.S. Output During and After the Great Recession," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 163-192.
    20. Müller, Ulrich K. & Wang, Yulong, 2019. "Nearly weighted risk minimal unbiased estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 18-34.
    21. Ulrich K. Muller & Mark W. Watson, 2021. "Spatial Correlation Robust Inference," Papers 2102.09353, arXiv.org.
    22. Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
    23. M. Chudý & S. Karmakar & W. B. Wu, 2020. "Long-term prediction intervals of economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 191-222, January.
    24. Snudden, Stephen, 2018. "Targeted growth rates for long-horizon crude oil price forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16.
    25. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10594, CESifo.
    26. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
    28. Sayar Karmakar & Marek Chudy & Wei Biao Wu, 2020. "Long-term prediction intervals with many covariates," Papers 2012.08223, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.

  14. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Inflation and Unit Labor Cost," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Martín Uribe, 2018. "The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models," NBER Working Papers 25089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios Michail & Niki Papadopoulou & Christos Savva, 2023. "Sales and promotions and the great recession deflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 349-392, January.
    3. Engin Kara & Ahmed Pirzada, 2020. "A Possible Explanation Of The Missing Deflation Puzzle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 361-373, January.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Escaping the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 20238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    7. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 289-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jae Sim & Raphael Schoenle & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis," 2014 Meeting Papers 206, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    10. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos, 2017. "Frictional Coordination," NBER Working Papers 24178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Marco Del Negro & Raiden B. Hasegawa & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    13. Chiara Fratto & Harald Uhlig, 2019. "Online Appendix to "Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation: A Retro Analysis"," Online Appendices 18-217, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    14. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 65/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Mangin, Sephorah & Sedláček, Petr, 2018. "Unemployment and the labor share," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 41-59.
    16. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2020. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and output hysteresis in a New Keynesian model with unemployment," Kiel Working Papers 2162, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Álvarez, Luis J. & Correa-López, Mónica, 2020. "Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Linde, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2019. "Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 13690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Engin Kara & Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2015. "Risk, Intermediate Input Prices and Missing Deflation During the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 5429, CESifo.
    20. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Walid Mensi & Hee-Un Ko & Massimiliano Caporin & Sang Hoon Kang, 2021. "Is the Korean housing market following Gangnam style?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2041-2072, October.
    22. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Georgeta Lixandru & Marius Popovici & Alina – Georgiana Solomon & Emilia Stanciu, 2017. "Theoretical Elements on the Use of Price Indices for Inflation Measurement," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 38-47, July.
    23. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    24. Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Trust Shocks, Financial Crises, and Money," MPRA Paper 106343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predicting inflation expectations: A habit-based explanation under hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    26. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018. "NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    27. Filippo Gori, 2016. "Disentangling the Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 27, Bank of Lithuania.
    28. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Grimaud, Alex, 2023. "Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    29. In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2020. "Differencing versus nondifferencing in factor‐based forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 728-750, September.
    30. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    31. Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) & Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia [Моделирование Инфляционных Процессов В России]," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Masahiko Shibamoto & Shoka Hayaki & Yoshitaka Ogisu, 2021. "COVID-19 Infection Spread and Human Mobility," Discussion Paper Series DP2021-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Feb 2022.
    3. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9884, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Chow, Yee Peng & Muhammad, Junaina & Bany-Ariffin, A.N. & Cheng, Fan Fah, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Corporate Capital Structure: Evidence from the Asia Pacific Region," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 99-122.
    6. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    8. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    9. Hilde C. Bj�rnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    11. Felipe Beltrán & David Coble, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises on the Banking Sector: the Role of the Information and Pure Monetary Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 979, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Maxime Phillot & Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2021. "Monetary policy financial transmission and treasury liquidity premia," Working Papers 2021-14, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo, 2021. "Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Stan Veuger & Daniel Shoag, 2013. "Uncertainty and the geography of the Great Recession," AEI Economics Working Papers 694, American Enterprise Institute.
    15. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2014. "Fat-tails in VAR Models," Working Papers 714, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Mark A Carlson & David C Wheelock, 2016. "Near-money premiums, monetary policy, and the integration of money markets: lessons from deregulation," BIS Working Papers 581, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    19. Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 119-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    22. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Sofia Panagiotakopoulou, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," BAFES Working Papers BAFES13, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    24. Angelini, Giovanni & Fanelli, Luca, 2018. "Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments," MPRA Paper 93864, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2019.
    25. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    26. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
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    29. Federico Di Pace & Christoph Gortz, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Sectoral Comovement and the Credit Channel," Discussion Papers 21-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    30. Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation for the world economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Metiu, Norbert, 2020. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Discussion Papers 52/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs," Working Papers 18-25/R, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    33. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
    34. Candelon, Bertrand & Ferrara, Laurent & Joëts, Marc, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2021003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    35. Ha,Jongrim & Stocker,Marc & Yilmazkuday,Hakan, 2019. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8780, The World Bank.
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    37. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2020. "Okun's Law: Copula-based Evidence from G7 Countries," MPRA Paper 103318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
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    42. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, February.
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    45. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    49. Tsiaras, Stylianos, 2023. "Asset purchases, limited asset markets participation and inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
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    51. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Ferrero, Andrea, 2021. "The transmission of Keynesian supply shocks," Bank of England working papers 934, Bank of England.
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    64. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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    204. Nikolaos Zirogiannis & Yorghos Tripodis, 2018. "Dynamic factor analysis for short panels: estimating performance trajectories for water utilities," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(1), pages 131-150, March.
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    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    2. Hale, Galina & Lopez, Jose A., 2019. "Monitoring banking system connectedness with big data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 203-220.
    3. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2015. "Has the Euro‐Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 241-262, March.
    4. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    6. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    7. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2015. "The Term Structure of Returns: Facts and Theory," NBER Working Papers 21234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. André Nunes Maranhão & Nicole Rennó Castro, 2023. "Dissecting Brazilian agriculture business cycles in high-dimensional and time-irregular span contexts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1543-1578, October.
    11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    12. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Joe Hirschberg & Jenny Lye, 2020. "Visualising Time: A Compendium of Time Series Plots," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(2), pages 270-291, June.
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    15. Rui Albuquerque & Martin Eichenbaum & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Sergio Rebelo, 2015. "Long-run Bulls and Bears," NBER Working Papers 20858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
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    18. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    20. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2019. "A new approach to dating the reference cycle," Working Papers 1914, Banco de España.
    21. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    22. Fan, Jianqing & Ke, Yuan & Liao, Yuan, 2021. "Augmented factor models with applications to validating market risk factors and forecasting bond risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 269-294.
    23. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2021. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 977-1006, September.
    25. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "The Topology of Time Series: Improving Recession Forecasting from Yield Spreads," Working Papers 2019-02, Swansea University, School of Management.
    26. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2139, Banco de España.
    27. T. Daniel Coggin, 2023. "CO2, SO2 and economic growth: a cross-national panel study," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 437-457, June.
    28. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2023. "A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    29. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr� K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    30. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    31. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Working Papers hal-03373425, HAL.
    33. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    34. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    35. Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," EMF Research Papers 37, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    36. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.
    37. Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele, 2019. "Structural changes in large economic datasets: A nonparametric homogeneity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 55-59.
    38. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    39. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    40. Patrik Kupkovic & Martin Suster, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Cycle in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    41. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
    42. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Nguyen Domenico Sartore, 2020. "A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models Under Misspecification," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(2), pages 66-103, June.
    43. Daniele Massacci, 2017. "Tail Risk Dynamics in Stock Returns: Links to the Macroeconomy and Global Markets Connectedness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3072-3089, September.
    44. Herman Stekler & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Working Papers 2016-15, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2016.
    45. Tan, Zhengxun & Liu, Juan & Chen, Juanjuan, 2021. "Detecting stock market turning points using wavelet leaders method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    46. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    47. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzollo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2019. "Forecast Density Combinations with Dynamic Learning for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-025/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    48. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    49. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    50. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
    51. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2021. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    52. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    53. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
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    55. Sadullah Çelik & Deniz Şatıroğlu, 2015. "A Reality Check on the Relationship between Poverty and Income Inequality for Turkey," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 229, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    56. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.
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    59. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

  18. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Plašil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlaváč, 2016. "A New Measure of the Financial Cycle: Application to the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 296-318, July.
    2. Kirti, Divya, 2018. "Lending standards and output growth," ESRB Working Paper Series 79, European Systemic Risk Board.
    3. Arianna Miglietta & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "An indicator of macro-financial stress for Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 497, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Jun-ichi Shinkai & Akira Kohsaka, 2010. "Financial Linkages and Business Cycles of Japan: An Analysis Using Financial Conditions Index," OSIPP Discussion Paper 10E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    5. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    6. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    8. Dimitris, Korobilis, 2013. "Forecasting with Factor Models: A Bayesian Model Averaging Perspective," MPRA Paper 52724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam & Rajesh Kavediya & Jessica M. Anthony, 2017. "Estimating Financial Conditions Index for India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 61-89, April.
    10. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Andrés Murcia, 2013. "Macro-prudential assessment of Colombian financial institutions’ systemic importance," Borradores de Economia 11105, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather, 2013. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?," Working Paper Series 1541, European Central Bank.
    12. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 2013. "TFP during a credit crunch," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 1150-1178.
    13. Fonseca, Marcelo Gonçalves da Silva & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2014. "Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach," Textos para discussão 358, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    14. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(2), pages 83-117, Summer.
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    16. Nam Hoai Tran & Chi Dat Le, 2017. "Financial conditions and corporate investment: evidence from Vietnam," Pacific Accounting Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 183-203, April.
    17. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
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    22. Mateusz Pipień & Dobiesław Tymoczko, 2024. "Does the credit cycle exist? Policy recommendations based on empirical analyses of the Polish banking sector," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(1), pages 1-20.
    23. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, February.
    24. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    25. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    26. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
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    31. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
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    45. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone targeting monetary policy preferences and financial market conditions: a flexible nonlinear policy reaction function of the SARB monetary policy," Working Papers 201005, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    46. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    47. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2014. "A Tourism Conditions Index," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    48. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    207. Fredj Jawadi & Hachmi Ben Ameur & Stephanie Bigou & Alexis Flageollet, 2022. "Does the Real Business Cycle Help Forecast the Financial Cycle?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1529-1546, December.
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    1. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    3. Yunus Aksoy & Rubens Morita & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2019. "The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Macroeconomic Causality Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8035, CESifo.
    4. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "The Informational Content of the Term-Spread in Forecasting the U.S. Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 3-2016, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    6. Hirano, Keisuke & Wright, Jonathan H., 2022. "Analyzing cross-validation for forecasting with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 139-154.
    7. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2020. "Inflation in the G7 Countries: Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8349, CESifo.
    9. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
    10. Robert G. Murphy, 2013. "Explaining Inflation in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 823, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 18 Oct 2014.
    11. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jul 2016.
    12. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Robert E. Hall, 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," NBER Working Papers 22230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    15. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    16. Barkan, Oren & Benchimol, Jonathan & Caspi, Itamar & Cohen, Eliya & Hammer, Allon & Koenigstein, Noam, 2023. "Forecasting CPI inflation components with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1145-1162.
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    63. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hwang, Jungbin & Sun, Yixiao, 2016. "Simple, Robust, and Accurate F and t Tests in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt82k1x4rd, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    4. James A. Duffy & Jerome R. Simons, 2020. "Cointegration without Unit Roots," Papers 2002.08092, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    5. Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Moreira, Marcelo J., 2013. "Contributions to the Theory of Optimal Tests," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 747, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Florian Pelgrin & Alain Venditti, 2020. "On the long-run fluctuations of inheritance in two-sector OLG models," Working Papers halshs-03080407, HAL.
    7. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "Inflation And Unemployment In Switzerland: From 1970 To 2050," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(2(20)/ Su), pages 141-156.
    2. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
    3. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman, 2018. "Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "The Informational Content of the Term-Spread in Forecasting the U.S. Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 3-2016, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    6. Arratibel, Olga & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Kamps, Christophe, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    8. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States," Working Paper Series 2583, European Central Bank.
    9. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
    10. Robert G. Murphy, 2013. "Explaining Inflation in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 823, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 18 Oct 2014.
    11. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    12. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    15. Ghysels, Eric & Ozkan, Nazire, 2015. "Real-time forecasting of the US federal government budget: A simple mixed frequency data regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1009-1020.
    16. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
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    18. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Paper series 44_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    19. Kitov, Oleg & Kitov, Ivan, 2011. "A win-win monetary policy in Canada," MPRA Paper 29975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2235, European Central Bank.
    21. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2010. "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with time series models to forecast inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 126-144, August.
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    24. Andrew Keinsley & Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju, 2021. "The Nonlinear Unemployment-Inflation Relationship and the Factors That Define It," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 354-377, June.
    25. Jamie Hall & Jarkko Jääskelä, 2009. "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    26. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    27. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    29. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    30. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    31. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    32. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
    33. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    34. Evgeny Pavlov, 2020. "Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using Neural Networks," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 57-73, March.
    35. Robert G. Murphy, 2016. "Why Has Inflation Been So Unresponsive to Economic Activity in Recent Years?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 920, Boston College Department of Economics.
    36. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
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  24. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2008. "The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction," Scholarly Articles 28468706, Harvard University Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kaneez, Fatima & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. M. D. Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Eduardo Bandrés, 2017. "Clustering regional business cycles," Working Papers 1744, Banco de España.
    4. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "On the Importance of Sectoral and Regional Shocks for Price‐Setting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1234-1253, November.
    5. Alan Tidwell & Yan (Olivia) Lu & Junsoo Lee & Piyali Banerjee, 2023. "Nature of comovements in US state and MSA housing prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 959-989, July.
    6. Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Mario Forni & Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Stefano Soccorsi, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
    9. Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
    10. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    11. Dimitris Korobilis & Michelle Gilmartin, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on State Unemployment," Working Paper series 12_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    13. Francisco Blasques & Meindert Heres Hoogerkamp & Siem Jan Koopman & Ilka van de Werve, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models with Clustered Loadings: Forecasting Education Flows using Unemployment Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-078/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Jan 2021.
    14. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    15. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    17. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    18. Luis J. Álvarez & Ana Gómez-Loscos & María Dolores Gadea, 2019. "Inflation interdependence in advanced economies," Working Papers 1920, Banco de España.
    19. Luis J. Álvarez & Ana Gómez Loscos & M.ª Dolores Gadea, 2020. "The relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2020.
    20. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

  25. Mark W. Watson & Ricardo Reis, 2007. "Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire," 2007 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    3. Jean Boivin, 2009. "Getting it Right When You Might Be Wrong: The Choice Between Price-Level and Inflation Targeting," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 297, September.
    4. Mirko Wiederholt & Emanuel Moench & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2009. "Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting," 2009 Meeting Papers 666, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    7. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2010. "The Impact of Asset Prices and their Information Value for Monetary Policy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 134-167, August.
    8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2011. "Sectoral Structure and Economic Growth," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.

  26. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2021. "Evaluating restricted common factor models for non-stationary data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 64-75.
    2. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    3. Rafi Melnick, 2016. "Measuring Unobserved Expected Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 2-22, April.
    4. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    5. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    6. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    7. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    9. Nocetti, Diego & Smith, William T., 2011. "Price uncertainty, saving, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1139-1149, July.
    10. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Subhasankar Chattopadhyay, 2022. "Inter‐sectoral relative price, inflation and structural transformation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(5), pages 524-540, September.
    12. Marios Zachariadis, 2012. "Global Versus Local Shocks in Micro Price Dynamics," 2012 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    14. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    15. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    17. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    18. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    19. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    20. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Hie Joo Ahn & Matteo Luciani, 2021. "Relative prices and pure inflation since the mid-1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    23. Claudio Borio, 2019. "On money, debt, trust and central banking," BIS Working Papers 763, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    25. Lasse BORK & Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA, 2009. "Identification of macroeconomic factors in large panels," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.18, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    26. Claudio Barbieri & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano, 2021. "The anatomy of government bond yields synchronization in the Eurozone," Working Papers hal-03373853, HAL.
    27. Vadim Napalkov & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2021. "Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(1), pages 3-45, March.
    28. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    29. Abdelraouf, Nadine & Noureldin, Diaa, 2022. "The impact of the exchange rate regime on the dispersion of the price-change distribution: Evidence from a large panel of countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    30. Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 5328, CESifo.
    31. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    32. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2013. "Principal components estimation and identification of static factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 18-29.
    33. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "A Factorial Decomposition Of Inflation In Peru, An Alternative Measure Of Core Inflation," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-315, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    34. B. Jungbacker & S.J. Koopman & M. van Der Wel, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation for dynamic factor models with missing data," Post-Print hal-00828980, HAL.
    35. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    37. Choi, Chi-Young & O'Sullivan, Róisín, 2013. "Heterogeneous response of disaggregate inflation to monetary policy regime change: The role of price stickiness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1814-1832.
    38. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
    39. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    40. Rita Soares, 2013. "Assessing monetary policy in the euro area: a factor-augmented VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(19), pages 2724-2744, July.
    41. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the future: intellectual challenges for monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 981, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    43. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    44. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    45. Matteo Barigozzi & Angelo Cuzzola & Marco Grazzi & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Factoring in the micro: a transaction-level dynamic factor approach to the decomposition of export volatility," LEM Papers Series 2021/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    46. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2022. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on price Co-movements in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    47. Cristina Conflitti, 2020. "Alternative measures of underlying inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 593, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    48. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Aleksandra Hałka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2018. "What core inflation indicators measure?," NBP Working Papers 294, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    50. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    51. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    52. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Matteo Luciani & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2021. "Inferential Theory for Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2021-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    53. Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    54. Philippe Andrade & Marios Zachariadis, 2010. "Trends in International Prices," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    55. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    57. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    58. Kiselev, Aleksei & Zhivaykina, Aleksandra, 2020. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    59. Gregor W. Smith, 2009. "The Missing Links: Better Measures of Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 287, April.
    60. Luengo-Prado, María José & Rao, Nikhil & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2018. "Sectoral inflation and the Phillips curve: What has changed since the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 63-68.
    61. Apaitan, Tosapol & Disyatat, Piti & Manopimoke, Pym, 2020. "Thai inflation dynamics: A view from disaggregated price data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 117-134.
    62. Aðalheiður Ó. Guðlaugsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro, 2018. "The common component of the CPI - A trendy measure of Icelandic underlying inflation," Economics wp78, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    63. Claudio Borio, 2019. "Central banking in challenging times," BIS Working Papers 829, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    65. Seunghoon Na & Hyunseung Oh, 2020. "Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1292, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    66. B. Jungbacker & S.J. Koopman & M. van der Wel, 2009. "Dynamic Factor Analysis in The Presence of Missing Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-010/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Mar 2011.
    67. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

  27. Watson, Mark, 2007. "Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2009. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with an Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2009-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Adrian Armas & Lucy Vallejos & Marco Vega, 2010. "Measurement of price indices used by the central bank of Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 259-283, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    6. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.

  28. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    2. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
    3. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    4. Kulish, Mariano & Pagan, Adrian, 2014. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Dynare Working Papers 34, CEPREMAP.
    5. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
    6. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    7. Yunus Aksoy & Rubens Morita & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2019. "The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Macroeconomic Causality Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8035, CESifo.
    8. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
    9. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Chiemeke, Charles C., 2019. "Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    10. Wojciech CHAREMZA & Carlos DÍAZ & Svetlana MAKAROVA, 2019. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-18, March.
    11. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    12. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    13. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Do Federal Reserve Presidents Communicate with a Regional Bias?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201103, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Igor Masten & Massimiliano Marcellino & Anindya Banerjeey, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/32, European University Institute.
    15. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
    16. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The implications of liquidity expansion in China for the US dollar," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    17. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Luc BAUWENS & Jean-François CARPENTIER & Arnaud DUFAYS, 2017. "Autoregressive moving average infinite hidden Markov-switching models," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2836, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman, 2018. "Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Arratibel, Olga & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Kamps, Christophe, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
    21. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
    22. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    23. Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    24. Doojav Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam Davaajargal, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Mongolia: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-48, January.
    25. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    26. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    27. Luca Benati, 2008. "The “Great Moderation” in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    28. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," NBER Working Papers 18195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Christopher Gibbs, 2015. "Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    30. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank.
    31. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    32. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
    33. Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & John Simon & Susan Wachter, 2015. "Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2015/133, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.
    35. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "The semiparametric asymmetric stochastic volatility model with time-varying parameters: The case of US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 14-18.
    36. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    37. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kaneez, Fatima & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    38. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2020. "Inflation in the G7 Countries: Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8349, CESifo.
    39. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
    40. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    41. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    42. Eric Ghysels & Leonardo Iania & Jonas Striaukas, 2018. "Quantile-based Inflation Risk Models," Working Paper Research 349, National Bank of Belgium.
    43. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    44. Pierre L Siklos, 2010. "Relative Price Shocks, Inflation Expectations, and the Role of Monetary Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    45. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    46. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    47. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    48. Fan, Xuecheng & Xu, Zeshui & Qin, Yong & Škare, Marinko, 2023. "Quantifying the short- and long-run impact of inflation-related price volatility on knowledge asset investment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    49. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    50. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    51. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2010. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    52. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    53. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    54. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    55. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    56. José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
    57. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    58. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.
    59. Ina Hajdini, 2022. "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 22-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
    60. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication with Unknown Prior," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    895. Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: El caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 11252, Banco de la Republica.
    896. Mallick Debdulal, 2019. "The growth-volatility relationship redux: what does volatility decomposition tell?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, June.
    897. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio & Esposito, Piero, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of the n ew Keynesian Phillips curve for Australia," MPRA Paper 29242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    898. Peter Tulip, 2009. "Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1231, September.
    899. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John, 2012. "Nonstationarity and nonlinearity in inflation rate: Some further evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 224-234.
    900. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
    901. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    902. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    903. Nicholas Apergis & Sofia Eleftheriou & Dimitrios Voliotis, 2017. "Asymmetric Spillover Effects between Agricultural Commodity Prices and Biofuel Energy Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 166-177.
    904. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
    905. Cheng, Gong & Díaz Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2017. "From Debt Collection to Relief Provision: 60 Years of Official Debt Restructurings through the Paris Club," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8081, Inter-American Development Bank.
    906. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    907. Ibarra, Raul, 2012. "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1305-1313.

  29. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," NBER Working Papers 12671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Haug, 2012. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Working Papers 65, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    2. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    3. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Giraitis, Liudas, 2020. "Time-Varying Instrumental Variable Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Working Papers 1109, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2011.
    6. Zhongjun Qu, 2010. "A Test Against Spurious Long Memory," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-051, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2017. "Trends in distributional characteristics : Existence of global warming," UC3M Working papers. Economics 24121, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    8. Bauwens, Luc & Chevillon, Guillaume & Laurent, Sébastien, 2023. "We modeled long memory with just one lag!," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    9. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Guillaume Chevillon & Alain Hecq & Sébastien Laurent, 2018. "Generating Univariate Fractional Integration within a Large VAR(1)," AMSE Working Papers 1844, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    11. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2021. "Spatial Correlation Robust Inference," Working Papers 2021-61, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    12. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    13. Onatski, Alexei & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Unit Roots In White Noise," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 485-508, June.
    14. Federico M. Bandi & Bernard Perron & Andrea Tamoni & Claudio Tebaldi, 2014. "The scale of predictability," Working Papers 509, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    15. White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
    16. Gadea Rivas, Marta Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2022. "Climate change heterogeneity: a new quantitative approach," UC3M Working papers. Economics 35442, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    17. Chevillon, G. & Hecq, A.W. & Laurent, S.F.J.A., 2015. "Long memory through marginalization of large systems and hidden cross-section dependence," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    18. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Low-Frequency Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 21564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2014. "Estimating The Persistence And The Autocorrelation Function Of A Time Series That Is Measured With Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 60-93, February.
    20. Sizova, Natalia, 2014. "A frequency-domain alternative to long-horizon regressions with application to return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 261-272.
    21. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(4), pages 1711-1740.
    23. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    24. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    25. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    26. Zhou, Bo, 2017. "Semiparametric inference for non-LAN models," Other publications TiSEM 0ea4fd8a-937d-4c19-8f77-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    27. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
    28. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2017. "Learning can generate long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 1-9.
    29. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
    30. María Dolores Gadea Rivas & Jesús Gonzalo, 2022. "A tale of three cities: climate heterogeneity," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 475-511, May.
    31. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    32. Zhang, Rongmao & Chan, Ngai Hang, 2018. "Portmanteau-type tests for unit-root and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 307-324.
    33. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    34. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?," Staff Reports 289, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    35. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Vasily Korovkin, 2020. "On Policy Evaluation with Aggregate Time-Series Shocks," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp657, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

  30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    2. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    3. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Woon Gyu Choi & Taesu Kang & Geun-Young Kim & Byongju Lee, 2014. "Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses," Working Papers 2014-38, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    5. Igor Masten & Massimiliano Marcellino & Anindya Banerjeey, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/32, European University Institute.
    6. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    8. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    10. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
    11. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Papers No 06/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    13. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Structural FECM: Cointegration in large-scale structural FAVAR models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Zhaoxing Gao & Ruey S. Tsay, 2020. "Modeling High-Dimensional Unit-Root Time Series," Papers 2005.03496, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    15. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2017. "The effects of US monetary policy shocks: Applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model," Discussion Papers 08/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    18. Yin Liao & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Do Jumps Matter? Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility allowing for Common Jumps," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    19. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2008. "Modelling short-term interest rate spreads in the euro money market," Working Paper Series 982, European Central Bank.
    21. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    22. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Should crude oil price volatility receive more attention than the price of crude oil? An empirical investigation via a large‐scale out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation of US macroeconomic data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 769-791, August.
    23. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    24. Gao, Zhaoxing & Tsay, Ruey S., 2023. "A Two-Way Transformed Factor Model for Matrix-Variate Time Series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 83-101.
    25. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
    26. Chihwa Kao & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Asymptotics for Panel Models with Common Shocks," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 390-439.
    27. In Choi & Jorg Breitung, 2011. "Factor models," Working Papers 1121, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Dec 2011.
    28. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    29. Derek Bunn & Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas prices," Post-Print hal-01619890, HAL.
    30. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    32. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
    33. Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2006. "Time series forecasting by principal covariate regression," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    34. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2012. "Identification and estimation of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 38434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    37. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Duo Qin, 2006. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries," Working Papers 575, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    39. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    40. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    41. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    42. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    43. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    44. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    45. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2015. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 258, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    46. Tomohiro Ando & Jushan Bai, 2015. "Asset Pricing with a General Multifactor Structure," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 556-604.
    47. Alaba David Alori & Adebayo Augustine Kutu, 2019. "Export Function of Cocoa Production, Exchange Rate Volatility and Prices in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(2), pages 1-14.
    48. Kong, Xin-Bing & Liu, Zhi & Zhou, Wang, 2019. "A rank test for the number of factors with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 439-460.
    49. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    50. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
    51. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Carry trades and commodity risk factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-129.
    52. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    53. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, February.
    54. Krzysztof Zalewski, 2009. "Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators - the Case of Poland," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 24.
    55. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    56. Lian An & Xiaomei Ren & Huimin Li & Jing Xu, 2017. "Exchange Rate And Us Macroeconomy: Evidence From The Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 483-508, June.
    57. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    58. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    60. Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Stock Markets Comovements: the Role of Economic and Financial Integration," ICER Working Papers 25-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    61. Rafael Emilio Congregado & Vicente Esteve, 2021. "Long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Spanish economy, 1830-1998," Working Papers 2104, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    62. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    63. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
    64. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    65. Necmettin Alpay Koçak, 2020. "The Role of Ecb Speeches in Nowcasting German Gdp," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 05-20.
    66. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    67. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    68. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Euro money market spreads during the 2007–? financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 548-557.
    69. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2012. "Prediction with Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 482-486, May.
    70. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    71. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    72. Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    73. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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    75. Heinen, Florian & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-433, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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    77. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2020. "Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models," Working Papers 20-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    78. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2019. "The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series 2019/08, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    81. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Largescale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Departmental Working Papers 201105, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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    84. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
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    1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    2. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2018. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 24377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim & Otterson, James, 2023. "Quantifying the uncertainty of long-term macroeconomic projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Fabien Tripier, 2002. "The Dynamic Correlation Between Growth and Unemployment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-9.
    7. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment," Economics Working Papers 2017-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2008. "Productivity Growth, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," Working Papers EMS_2011_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan, revised Feb 2011.
    9. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "R&D, Unemployment, and Labor Market Policies," Working Papers EMS_2010_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    10. Bianca Biagi & Maria Gabriela Ladu, 2018. "Productivity and employment dynamics: new evidence from Italian regions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 313-336, August.
    11. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Working Papers 2009-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    12. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2008. "Smooth-time-varying Okun's coefficients," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 363-375, March.
    13. Christian A. Conrad, 2023. "Testing the Phillips Curve: Inflation or Unemployment? Evidence from a Behavioral Experiment," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 18-22, May.
    14. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 392-406, July.
    15. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    16. Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1008-1013, December.
    17. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
    18. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    19. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    20. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    21. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    22. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2007. "Double Conditioned Potential Output," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 070701, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
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    24. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Wage Growth Puzzle and Capacity Utilization," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-31, March.
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    26. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
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    28. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real‐Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
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    30. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2009. "Technological Progress, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," ISER Discussion Paper 0734, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    31. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
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    35. George Chouliarakis & Mónica Correa-López, 2009. "A Fair Wage Model of Unemployment with Inertia in Fairness Perceptions," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 130, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    40. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    2. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society.

  37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    2. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    3. Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2017. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 582, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
    7. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
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    10. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Chiemeke, Charles C., 2019. "Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    11. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David Rapach & Jack Strauss, 2010. "Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 511-533.
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    16. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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    28. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    49. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    51. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Victor Bystrov, 2022. "The Evolution of Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics: The Case of Sweden," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-83.
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    21. Connor, Gregory & Hagmann, Matthias & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Efficient estimation of a semiparametric characteristic-based factor model of security returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24504, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    160. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
    161. Davor Kunovac, 2007. "Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 371-393.
    162. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2009. "Fundamental Economic Shocks and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1515-1555, December.
    163. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    164. Joaquim Pina, 2002. "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working Papers w200212, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    165. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani, 2008. "Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 701-722, August.
    2. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2015. "Forecasting Brazilian Output in Real Time in the Presence of breaks: a Comparison Of Linear and Nonlinear Models," Discussion Papers 0118, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    4. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 1999. "Forecasting Dynamic Time Series in the Presence of Deterministic Components," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 445, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & St'ephane Surprenant, 2020. "Macroeconomic Data Transformations Matter," Papers 2008.01714, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    9. Giancarlo Bruno, 2008. "Forecasting Using Functional Coefficients Autoregressive Models," ISAE Working Papers 98, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    10. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    11. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0331, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Seulki Chung, 2023. "Inside the black box: Neural network-based real-time prediction of US recessions," Papers 2310.17571, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    15. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
    16. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    17. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    18. Hampel, Katharina & Kunz, Marcus & Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2007. "Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB-Discussion Paper 200702, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    19. Sium Bodha Hannadige & Jiti Gao & Mervyn J Silvapulle & Param Silvapulle, 2021. "Time Series Forecasting Using a Mixture of Stationary and Nonstationary Predictors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    20. Catik, A. Nazif & Karaçuka, Mehmet, 2011. "A comparative analysis of alternative univariate time series models in forecasting Turkish inflation," DICE Discussion Papers 20, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    21. Rossen Anja, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, May.
    22. J. Ramos-Tallada, 2015. "Bank risks, monetary shocks and the credit channel in Brazil: identification and evidence from panel data," Working papers 548, Banque de France.
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    24. Sium Bodha Hannadige & Jiti Gao & Mervyn J. Silvapulle & Param Silvapulle, 2020. "Forecasting a Nonstationary Time Series with a Mixture of Stationary and Nonstationary Factors as Predictors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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    29. Farzan Aminian & E. Suarez & Mehran Aminian & Daniel Walz, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Data with Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 71-88, August.
    30. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    31. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
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    33. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions," Working papers 2004-22, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    34. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Aura Reggianni & Erich Maierhofer, 2005. "Neural Network Modeling as a Tool for Forecasting Regional Employment Patterns," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 330-346, July.
    35. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 453-458.
    36. Timmermann, Allan & Guidolin, Massimo, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    39. John W. Galbraith, 1999. "Content Horizons For Forecasts Of Economic Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 1999-01, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    40. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: An Analysis of German Labour Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-020/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    41. Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario A. Maggi, 2009. "A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting," Quaderni di Dipartimento 105, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    42. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
    43. Peter Exterkate, 2012. "Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers 2012-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    44. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    45. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter, 2006. "Forecasting regional labor market developments under spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    46. Yu, Jun, 1999. "Forecasting Volatility in the New Zealand Stock Market," Working Papers 175, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
    47. Haider, Adnan & Hanif, Muhammad Nadeem, 2007. "Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 14645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecast Pooling for Short Time Series of Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Working Paper Series 2151, European Central Bank.
    50. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    51. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    52. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    53. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Least squares estimation and tests of breaks in mean and variance under misspecification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 32-54, June.
    54. Uwe Hassler & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2019. "Forecasting under Long Memory and Nonstationarity," Papers 1910.08202, arXiv.org.
    55. David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
    56. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 2000. "Forecasting Australian Economic Activity Using Leading Indicators," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    57. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    58. Enders, Walter & Pascalau, Razvan, 2015. "Pretesting for multi-step-ahead exchange rate forecasts with STAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 473-487.
    59. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    60. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
    61. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Labour Market Developments Under Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-041/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    62. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 4), pages 4-20.
    63. Wei Qian & Craig A. Rolling & Gang Cheng & Yuhong Yang, 2015. "On the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Papers 1505.00475, arXiv.org.
    64. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, "undated". "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    65. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2002. "Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    66. Marc Brisson & Bryan Campbell & John W. Galbraith, 2001. "Forecasting Some Low-Predictability Time Series Using Diffusion Indices," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-46, CIRANO.
    67. David Ubilava, 2022. "A comparison of multistep commodity price forecasts using direct and iterated smooth transition autoregressive methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 687-701, September.
    68. Hollyman, Ross & Petropoulos, Fotios & Tipping, Michael E., 2021. "Understanding forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 149-160.
    69. Kraay, Aart & Monokroussos, George, 1999. "Growth forecasts using time series and growth models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2224, The World Bank.
    70. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    71. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    72. Blerina Vika & Ilir Vika, 2021. "Forecasting Albanian Time Series with Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 10, September.
    73. Raffaella Giacomini & Sokbae Lee & Silvia Sarpietro, 2023. "A Robust Method for Microforecasting and Estimation of Random Effects," Working Paper Series WP 2023-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    74. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    75. Nakamura, Emi, 2005. "Inflation forecasting using a neural network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 373-378, March.
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    77. Wei Qian & Craig A. Rolling & Gang Cheng & Yuhong Yang, 2019. "On the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, September.
    78. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    79. Zhang, Ningning & Lin, Aijing & Shang, Pengjian, 2017. "Multidimensional k-nearest neighbor model based on EEMD for financial time series forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 477(C), pages 161-173.
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  41. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Primiceri, Giorgio E. & van Rens, Thijs, 2009. "Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 20-39, January.
    3. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2005. "Where Did Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 67-150.
    4. Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/220, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Moussa, Zakaria, 2010. "The Japanese Quantitative Easing Policy under Scrutiny: A Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented VAR Model," MPRA Paper 29429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alberto Ronchi Neto & Osvaldo Candido, 2020. "Measuring the neutral real interest rate in Brazil: a semi-structural open economy framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 651-667, February.
    8. Massimiliano De Santis, 2005. "Movements in the Equity Premium: Evidence from a Bayesian Time-Varying VAR," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    9. Schalck, Christophe & Chenavaz, Régis, 2015. "Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 290-303.
    10. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.

  42. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynés & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre : une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications N° 2004-03, Sciences Po.
    2. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    3. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Sandeep Mazumder, 2015. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment," IMF Working Papers 2015/039, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Tito Boeri & Juan Francisco Jimeno, 2015. "The Unbearable Divergence of Unemployment in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Ana Aguilar & Carlo Alcaraz & Claudia Ramírez & Cid Alonso Rodríguez-Pérez, 2022. "The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market," BIS Working Papers 1005, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Denmark: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/380, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    9. Robert G. Murphy, 2013. "Explaining Inflation in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 823, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 18 Oct 2014.
    10. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Economics Series Working Papers 487, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    12. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Łukasz Arendt, 2005. "Próba oszacowania NAIRU dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 1-23.
    14. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    15. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2003. "Can rational expectations sticky-price models explain inflation dynamics," Open Access publications 10197/239, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    18. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1121, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Large Relative Price Shocks' Economy: the Brazilian Case," Working Papers Series 163, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    21. Miguel St. Aubyn, 2000. "Testing for Asymmetry in the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: Some Evidence for the USA," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    22. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
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    1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2018. "Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 137-150.
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    5. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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    8. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2009. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1481-1502, October.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    44. Maritta Paloviita, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Macroeconomics 0405015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Guha, Debashis & Visviki, Dimitra, 2001. "What determines inflation in the US, job growth or unemployment?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 447-458.
    46. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
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    50. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
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    52. Barak Hoffman & Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "Implications of rounding and rebasing for empirical analysis using consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    53. J Whittaker, 2001. "The reputational constraint on monetary policy," Working Papers 539849, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    54. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
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  48. Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierre St-Amant, 1996. "Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9602004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    4. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    5. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2015. "Testing for Fundamental Vector Moving Average Representations," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-022, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Ben Fung & Rohit Gupta, 1995. "Searching for the Liquidity Effect in Canada," Macroeconomics 9502004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "The Value of News," Working Papers No 6/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.

  49. Michael T. K. Horvath & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Cited by:

    1. Hali J. Edison & Joseph E. Gagnon & William R. Melick, 1994. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," International Finance Discussion Papers 465, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  50. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Cited by:

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    3. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2003. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 492, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Caterina Mendicino, 2006. "Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 317, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    6. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
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    8. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    9. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    10. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    11. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
    12. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 481-508, October.
    13. Sunoong Hwang & Yongsung Chang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro: une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel," TSE Working Papers 09-014, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    16. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
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    22. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2017. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles, and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 43, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    37. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    40. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
    41. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.
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    7. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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    12. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
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  52. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing long run neutrality," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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    7. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    8. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
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    38. Antonio Ribba, 2003. "Short-run and long-run interaction between inflation and unemployment in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 373-376.
    39. Westerlund, Joakim & Costantini, Mauro, 2006. "Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money," Working Papers 2006:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    40. Gali, Jordi, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 195-206, December.
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Articles

  1. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Haishi Li, 2023. "Multinational Production and Global Shock Propagation during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 10349, CESifo.

  2. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Long†Run Covariability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 775-804, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Grisse, Christian & Scheidegger, Fabian, 2021. "Covariability of real exchange rates and fundamentals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim & Otterson, James, 2023. "Quantifying the uncertainty of long-term macroeconomic projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Li Chen & Jiti Gao & Farshid Vahid, 2019. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases - a common features approach," Working Papers 2019-07-15, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Xiaohu Wang & Yonghui Zhang, 2019. "HAR Testing for Spurious Regression in Trend," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Igor Kheifets, 2021. "On Multicointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2306, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends in unobserved components models," Papers 2005.03988, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    7. Atil, Ahmed & Nawaz, Kishwar & Lahiani, Amine & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Are natural resources a blessing or a curse for financial development in Pakistan? The importance of oil prices, economic growth and economic globalization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2021. "Consistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 215-244.
    9. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2022. "Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9625, CESifo.
    10. Oglend, Atle, 2022. "The commodities/equities beta term-structure," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    11. Moura, Alban, 2021. "Are neutral and investment-specific technology shocks correlated?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Hiroshi Yamada, 2023. "Quantile regression version of Hodrick–Prescott filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1631-1645, April.
    13. Ross Doppelt, 2019. "Skill Flows: A Theory of Human Capital and Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 84-122, January.
    14. Hirukawa, Junichi & Raïssi, Hamdi, 2020. "Testing linear relationships between non-constant variances of economic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 182-189.
    15. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2020. "Long-run purchasing power parity redux," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Marc Gronwald & Xin Jin, 2023. "Macroeconomics with a Thick Pen," CESifo Working Paper Series 10430, CESifo.
    17. Hwang, Jungbin & Valdés, Gonzalo, 2023. "Finite-sample corrected inference for two-step GMM in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 327-352.
    18. Gozluklu, Arie & Morin, Annaïg, 2019. "Stock vs. Bond yields and demographic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.

    Cited by:

    1. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Eric J. Nasution, 2022. "A Simplified Vector Autoregressive Model Application on The Philippine Economic Performance During the Period 1965-2010," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(6), pages 252-260, June.
    3. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2023. "The Dynamic Persistence of Economic Shocks," Papers 2306.01511, arXiv.org.
    4. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "The great moderation: updated evidence with joint tests for multiple structural changes in variance and persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1193-1218, March.
    5. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel S. Wochner, 2021. "State‐dependent evaluation of predictive ability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 547-574, April.
    6. Esposti, Roberto, 2021. "On the long-term common movement of resource and commodity prices.A methodological proposal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Brett Rayner, 2020. "Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2020/045, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," Working Papers 22-08, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    11. Valérie Mignon & Marc Joëts & Bertrand Candelon, 2023. "What Makes Econometric Ideas Popular: The Role of Connectivity," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    14. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2019. "Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed," Globalization Institute Working Papers 353, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Fresoli, Diego & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2023. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2019. "Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data," KOF Working papers 19-463, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    19. Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
    20. Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Nicol Valeria Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2023. "El ISAE: Un Indicador para Monitorear la Actividad Económica Colombiana en Alta Frecuencia," Borradores de Economia 1225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Moneta, Alessio & Pallante, Gianluca, 2022. "Identification of Structural VAR Models via Independent Component Analysis: A Performance Evaluation Study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    22. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    23. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    24. Simon Blöthner & Mario Larch, 2022. "Economic determinants of regional trade agreements revisited using machine learning," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1771-1807, October.
    25. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    26. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2022. "Learning Probability Distributions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Papers 2204.06848, arXiv.org.
    27. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Stefán Thórarinsson, 2022. "Analysing inflation dynamics in Iceland using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression model," Economics wp88, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    29. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2020. "Long-run purchasing power parity redux," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    30. Shashanka Bhide, 2019. "Production Sectors and Regions in Macroeconometric Models of India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 711-725, December.
    31. Jiahe Lin & George Michailidis, 2019. "Regularized Estimation of High-dimensional Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Models," Papers 1912.04146, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    32. Kent Matthews & Kian Ong, 2022. "Is inflation caused by deteriorating inflation expectations or excessive monetary growth?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 259-274, June.
    33. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    34. Nuno Palma, 2019. "The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-Scale Historical Natural Experiment," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1904, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Aug 2021.
    35. T. Rodionova & S. Yakubovskiy & A. Kyfak, 2019. "Foreign Capital Flows as Factors of Economic Growth in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 48-57, December.
    36. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

  6. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(4), pages 1711-1740.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 770-784, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Graham Elliott & Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 771-811, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Werker, Bas J.M. & Zhou, Bo, 2022. "Semiparametric testing with highly persistent predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 347-370.
    2. Humberto Moreira & Marcelo Moreira, 2016. "Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Philipp Ketz & Adam McCloskey, 2021. "Short and Simple Confidence Intervals when the Directions of Some Effects are Known," Papers 2109.08222, arXiv.org.
    4. Ulrich K. Müller & Andriy Norets, 2016. "Coverage Inducing Priors in Nonstandard Inference Problems," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(515), pages 1233-1241, July.
    5. Cui, Liyuan & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Yingxing, 2021. "Solving Euler equations via two-stage nonparametric penalized splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 1024-1056.
    6. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
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    31. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2019. "Testing for Episodic Predictability in Stock Returns," Working Papers w201906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    32. Chenchuan (Mark) Li & Ulrich K. Müller, 2021. "Linear regression with many controls of limited explanatory power," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 405-442, May.
    33. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Taylor, AM Robert, 2021. "Simple Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Good Size and Power Properties," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 29814, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    34. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Long†Run Covariability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 775-804, May.
    35. Philipp Ketz, 2018. "Subvector inference when the true parameter vector may be near or at the boundary," Post-Print halshs-01884381, HAL.
    36. Adam McCloskey, 2012. "Bonferroni-Based Size-Correction for Nonstandard Testing Problems," Working Papers 2012-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    37. Yulong Wang & Zhijie Xiao, 2020. "Estimation and Inference about Tail Features with Tail Censored Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 994, Boston College Department of Economics.
    38. Yanbo Liu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2021. "Robust Inference with Stochastic Local Unit Root Regressors in Predictive Regressions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2305, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    39. Bas Werker & Bo Zhou, 2020. "Semiparametric Testing with Highly Persistent Predictors," Papers 2009.08291, arXiv.org.
    40. Ulrich K. Müller, 2020. "A More Robust t-Test," Working Papers 2020-32, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    41. Werker, Bas J.M. & Zhou, B., 2022. "Semiparametric testing with highly persistent predictors," Other publications TiSEM 2974ce9c-97c1-44cd-9331-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    42. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Change-Point Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-013, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    43. Wang, Yulong & Xiao, Zhijie, 2022. "Estimation and inference about tail features with tail censored data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 363-387.
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    52. Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu & Nina Kuriyama, 2023. "Inference in Predictive Quantile Regressions," Papers 2306.00296, arXiv.org.
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  10. Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 31-36, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Sirio Aramonte, 2022. "Inflation risk and the labor market: beneath the surface of a flat Phillips curve," BIS Working Papers 1054, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Böhl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2021. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 153, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2017. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1777-1802, December.
    4. Manuel Lukas & Eric Hillebrand, 2014. "Bagging Weak Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2014-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    6. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "How Large is the Output Cost of Disinflation?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-079, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Esady, Vania & Speigner, Bradley & Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation: the role of non-linearities," Bank of England working papers 1018, Bank of England.
    9. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    10. Bozena Kaderabkova & Emilie Jasova & Robert Holman, 2020. "Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 39-54, December.
    11. caterina mendicino & Antonello DÁgostino, 2016. "Expectation-driven cycles: Time-Varying Effects," EcoMod2016 9350, EcoMod.
    12. Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2018. "Sparse Restricted Perception Equilibrium," Working Papers 2018/8, Czech National Bank.
    13. Imad Moosa & Basil Al-Nakeeb, 2020. "An augmented P-Star model of US inflation," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 555-566, December.
    14. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Böhl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2021. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 55/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
    17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Schütz, Bernhard, 2017. "The NAIRU determinants: What’s structural about unemployment in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 883-908.
    19. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    20. Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Robert G. Murphy, 2019. "Can the Phillips Curve Explain Inflation over the Past Half-Century?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, May.
    23. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
    24. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Evžen Kocenda & Balázs Varga, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6306, CESifo.
    26. Mayes, David G. & Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2016. "EMU and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 341-364.
    27. Hinterlang, Natascha & Tänzer, Alina, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning," Discussion Papers 51/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Yhlas SOVBETOV, 2019. "Phillips Curve Estimation During Tranquil and Recessionary Periods: Evidence From Panel Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(1), pages 23-41, June.
    29. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    30. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    31. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Nonparametric modeling for the time-varying persistence of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    32. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Philips Curve," Working Papers 2018:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    34. OECD & Elena Rusticelli, 2014. "Rescuing the Phillips curve: Making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 109-127.
    35. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    36. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2015. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    38. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    39. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Gigante, 2018. "Weakness in Italy�s core inflation and the Phillips curve: the role of labour and financial indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Jackson Mejia & Brian C. Albrecht, 2022. "On price stability with a job guarantee," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 568-584, October.
    42. Jean-Marie Le Page, 2022. "Structural rate of unemployment, hysteresis, human capital, and macroeconomic data," Post-Print hal-04016193, HAL.
    43. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    44. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "Traditional Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 61427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Kurt See, 2021. "Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-16, Bank of Canada.
    46. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    47. Dixon, Huw David & Li, Yiyi & Meenagh, David & Tian, Maoshan, 2024. "Inflation persistence in the UK 1993-2019: from months to years," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    48. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    49. Wen-Yi Chen & Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2018. "Investigating the Persistence of Suicide in the United States: Evidence from the Quantile Unit Root Test," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 813-833, January.
    50. Simone Auer, 2018. "Labour market conditions and wage inflation in CEE economies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    51. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    52. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2018. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/050, International Monetary Fund.

  11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Inflation and Unit Labor Cost," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 111-149, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    2. Masahiko Shibamoto & Shoka Hayaki & Yoshitaka Ogisu, 2021. "COVID-19 Infection Spread and Human Mobility," Discussion Paper Series DP2021-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Feb 2022.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9884, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Chow, Yee Peng & Muhammad, Junaina & Bany-Ariffin, A.N. & Cheng, Fan Fah, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Corporate Capital Structure: Evidence from the Asia Pacific Region," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 99-122.
    5. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Same, but different? Testing monetary policy shock measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    7. Maxime Phillot & Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2021. "Monetary policy financial transmission and treasury liquidity premia," Working Papers 2021-14, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo, 2021. "Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2017. "The effects of US monetary policy shocks: Applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model," Discussion Papers 08/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E. Terrones, 2012. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 119-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers," CESifo Working Paper Series 5040, CESifo.
    13. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 21172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jackson Laura E. & Kliesen Kevin L. & Owyang Michael T., 2020. "The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    17. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2018. "Does a big bazooka matter? Central bank balance-sheet policies and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2197, European Central Bank.
    18. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
    19. Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation for the world economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs," Working Papers 18-25/R, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    22. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2020. "Okun's Law: Copula-based Evidence from G7 Countries," MPRA Paper 103318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    25. Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
    26. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2021. "Revisiting the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2021-02 Classification-E3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    27. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    28. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    29. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
    30. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    31. Tsiaras, Stylianos, 2023. "Asset purchases, limited asset markets participation and inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    32. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2014. "Liquidity, Trends, and the Great Recession," 2014 Meeting Papers 751, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    62. Francisco Blasques & Enzo D'Innocenzo & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Common and Idiosyncratic Conditional Volatility Factors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-057/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    63. Kohei Maehashi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2020. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Factor Models and Machine Learning: An Application to Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1146, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    64. Petropoulos, Fotios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2023. "Model combinations through revised base rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1477-1492.
    65. Kutateladze, Varlam, 2022. "The kernel trick for nonlinear factor modeling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 165-177.
    66. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    67. Varlam Kutateladze, 2021. "The Kernel Trick for Nonlinear Factor Modeling," Papers 2103.01266, arXiv.org.
    68. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2015. "What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 74-93.
    69. Schnücker, A.M., 2019. "Penalized Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI-2019-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    72. Qureshi, Anum & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Russia–Ukraine war and systemic risk: Who is taking the heat?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    73. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
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    75. Sergei Aliukov & Jan Buleca, 2022. "Comparative Multidimensional Analysis of the Current State of European Economies Based on the Complex of Macroeconomic Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-29, March.
    76. Tom Boot & Didier Nibbering, 2016. "Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-073/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Aug 2017.
    77. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    78. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2023. "LASSO principal component averaging: A fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1839-1852.
    79. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    80. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    81. Marine Carrasco & Mohamed Doukali, 2022. "Testing overidentifying restrictions with many instruments and heteroscedasticity using regularised jackknife IV [Specification testing in models with many instruments]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 71-97.
    82. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    83. Tae-Hwy Lee & Huiyu Huang, 2014. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High Frequency Information," Working Papers 201409, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    84. Tsair-Fwu Lee & Pei-Ju Chao & Hui-Min Ting & Liyun Chang & Yu-Jie Huang & Jia-Ming Wu & Hung-Yu Wang & Mong-Fong Horng & Chun-Ming Chang & Jen-Hong Lan & Ya-Yu Huang & Fu-Min Fang & Stephen Wan Leung, 2014. "Using Multivariate Regression Model with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    85. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    86. Ciner, Cetin, 2019. "Do industry returns predict the stock market? A reprise using the random forest," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 152-158.
    87. Alberto Abadie & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Choosing Among Regularized Estimators in Empirical Economics: The Risk of Machine Learning," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 743-762, December.
    88. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    89. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    90. Pacheco & Riquelme, 2021. "¿Cómo se siente el presidente?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4500, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    91. Luo, Jiawen & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Crude Oil Futures Prices based on Machine Learning," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/04, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    92. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Beating the Simple Average: Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Economic Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 20 Aug 2017.
    93. Yang Aijun & Xiang Ju & Yang Hongqiang & Lin Jinguan, 2018. "Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection in Probit Model for Forecasting U.S. Recessions Using a Large Set of Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1123-1138, April.
    94. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
    95. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
    96. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    97. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
    98. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2015. "l1-Regularization of High-Dimensional Time-Series Models with Flexible Innovations," Textos para discussão 636, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    99. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
    100. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    101. Fan, Jianqing & Xue, Lingzhou & Yao, Jiawei, 2017. "Sufficient forecasting using factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 292-306.
    102. Yongmiao Hong & Tae-Hwy Lee & Yuying Sun & Shouyang Wang & Xinyu Zhang, 2017. "Time-varying Model Averaging," Working Papers 202001, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    103. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2022. "Forecasting European carbon returns using dimension reduction techniques: Commodity versus financial fundamentals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 944-969.
    104. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
    105. Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque & Yaohao Peng & João Pedro Fontoura da Silva, 2022. "Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1701-1724, December.
    106. Yiyuan She, 2017. "Selective factor extraction in high dimensions," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 104(1), pages 97-110.
    107. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    108. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Guney, I. Ethem & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "The role of an aligned investor sentiment index in predicting bond risk premia of the U.S," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    109. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    110. Jan Prüser, 2019. "Forecasting with many predictors using Bayesian additive regression trees," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 621-631, November.
    111. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitris & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2020. "Reaching for yield and the diabolic loop in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    112. Yang, Ke & Tian, Fengping & Chen, Langnan & Li, Steven, 2017. "Realized volatility forecast of agricultural futures using the HAR models with bagging and combination approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 276-291.
    113. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
    114. Dominik Bertsche & Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2023. "Directed graphs and variable selection in large vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 223-246, March.
    115. Zhao, Xin & Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Kang, Wanglin, 2018. "Usefulness of economic and energy data at different frequencies for carbon price forecasting in the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 132-141.
    116. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
    117. Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2022. "Forecasting Unemployment in Russia Using Machine Learning Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 73-87, March.
    118. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    119. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    120. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2017. "A Unified Framework for Dimension Reduction in Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    121. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    122. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    123. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
    124. Sagaert, Yves R. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & De Vuyst, Stijn & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Desmet, Bram, 2019. "Incorporating macroeconomic leading indicators in tactical capacity planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 12-19.
    125. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    126. M. Chudý & S. Karmakar & W. B. Wu, 2020. "Long-term prediction intervals of economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 191-222, January.
    127. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    128. Wei, Jie & Zhang, Yonghui, 2020. "A time-varying diffusion index forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    129. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2015. "Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  17. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 128-157, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 16-19, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
    2. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    3. M. D. Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Eduardo Bandrés, 2017. "Clustering regional business cycles," Working Papers 1744, Banco de España.
    4. Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
    5. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    7. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
    8. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    10. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2139, Banco de España.
    12. T. Daniel Coggin, 2023. "CO2, SO2 and economic growth: a cross-national panel study," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 437-457, June.
    13. Deimena KIYAK & Erika ŽUPERKIENĖ, 2017. "Expression Of The Transport Sector Operational Efficiency Evaluation Methodology (Trends) At Different Stages Of The Economic Cycle," Transport Problems, Silesian University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, vol. 12(4), pages 109-118, December.
    14. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
    16. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Working Papers hal-03373425, HAL.
    17. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    18. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "A Multi-Market Approach to Measuring the Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. Abdullah Tahir & Jameel Ahmed & Waqas Ahmed, 2018. "Robust Quarterization of GDP and Determination of Business Cycle Dates for IGC Partner Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 97, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    21. Charles E. Eesley & David H. Hsu & Edward B. Roberts, 2014. "The contingent effects of top management teams on venture performance: Aligning founding team composition with innovation strategy and commercialization environment," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1798-1817, December.
    22. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    23. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    24. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    25. Chebbi, Ali, 2019. "How to enlarge the fiscal space and gain efficiency when adopting automatic fuel pricing mechanisms? The Tunisian case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-43.
    26. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 668-692, December.
    27. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    28. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    29. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    30. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    31. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    32. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

  20. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 155-174, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
    2. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    3. Kulish, Mariano & Pagan, Adrian, 2014. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Dynare Working Papers 34, CEPREMAP.
    4. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
    5. Wojciech CHAREMZA & Carlos DÍAZ & Svetlana MAKAROVA, 2019. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-18, March.
    6. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    7. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    9. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Luca Benati, 2008. "The “Great Moderation” in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    11. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," NBER Working Papers 18195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christopher Gibbs, 2015. "Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
    14. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2020. "Inflation in the G7 Countries: Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8349, CESifo.
    16. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
    17. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    18. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    19. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    20. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    21. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    22. José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.
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    1. Rünstler, Gerhard & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Business, housing and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 1915, European Central Bank.
    2. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    3. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    4. Jetter, Michael & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Smith, William T., 2013. "The effects of wage volatility on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 93-109.
    5. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
    6. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2015. "Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, April.
    8. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    10. Rui Albuquerque & Martin Eichenbaum & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Sergio Rebelo, 2015. "Long-run Bulls and Bears," NBER Working Papers 20858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    12. António Rua & Miguel de Carvalho, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    14. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010. "Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Stefan Leist & Klaus Neusser, 2010. "Measuring the Natural Output Level by DSGE Models: An Empirical Investigation for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 275-300, March.
    16. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    18. Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    20. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
    21. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
    22. Onur Ince & David H. Papell, 2013. "The (Un)Reliability of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data," Working Papers 13-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    23. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2017. "Monetary Policy Rules Under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1400-1415, July.
    24. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
    25. Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2016. "Data Revisions and DSGE Models," EMF Research Papers 11, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    26. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun, 2013. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 01, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    27. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    29. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    30. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    32. Wilde, Wolfram, 2012. "The influence of Taylor rule deviations on the real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 51-61.
    33. Jetter, Michael, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: Governments are Key," IZA Discussion Papers 7826, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    34. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    35. Fernández, Adriana Z. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "The changing nature of the U.S. economic influence in the World," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 196-209, March.
    36. Onur Ince, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Out-of-Sample with Panel Methods and Real-Time Data," Working Papers 13-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    37. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
    38. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.

  27. Amengual, Dante & Watson, Mark W., 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 91-96, January.

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    1. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Brandon J. Bates & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Working Paper 84631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2015. "Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps," Discussion Papers 2015-05, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Alessi, Lucia & Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2016. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought," Working Paper Series 1967, European Central Bank.
    5. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Han, Chirok & Sul, Donggyu, 2012. "Estimating the number of common factors in serially dependent approximate factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 531-534.
    6. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    8. Gent Bajraj & Jorge Lorca & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2022. "On Foreign Drivers of EMEs Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 951, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    10. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    11. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
    12. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    13. In Choi & Jorg Breitung, 2011. "Factor models," Working Papers 1121, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Dec 2011.
    14. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2012. "Identification and estimation of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 38434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2021. "Testing for international business cycles: A multilevel factor model with stochastic factor selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    22. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    23. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    25. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    26. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    27. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    29. Sarafidis, Vasilis & Wansbeek, Tom, 2010. "Cross-sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 20367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    31. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    32. Mario Forni & Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Stefano Soccorsi, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    33. Brian D. O. Anderson & Manfred Deistler & Marco Lippi, 2022. "Linear System Challenges of Dynamic Factor Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, December.
    34. Ando, Tomohiro & Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2022. "Bayesian and maximum likelihood analysis of large-scale panel choice models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 20-38.
    35. Dalibor Stevanovic & Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo, 2014. "Selection of the number of factors in presence of structural instability: a Monte Carlo study," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-44, CIRANO.
    36. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    37. Otter, Pieter W. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Reijer, Ard H.J. de, 2014. "A criterion for the number of factors in a data-rich environment," Research Report 14008-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    38. Pietro Dallari & Antonio Ribba, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models with In nite-Dimensional Factor Space: Asymptotic Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 115, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    Cited by:

    1. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    2. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
    3. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
    4. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2018. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201802, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Meyler, Aidan, 2020. "Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?," Working Paper Series 2371, European Central Bank.

  32. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.

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    54. Dale Roberts & Laura Ryan, 2015. "Evidence of speculation in world oil prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(4), pages 630-651, November.
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    56. Weiqi Tang & Libo Wu & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy," Economics Study Area Working Papers 102, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
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    2. Gaytán González Alejandro & González García Jesús R., 2006. "Structural Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Mexico: A Non-linear VAR Approach," Working Papers 2006-06, Banco de México.

  38. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.

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    3. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
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    23. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    26. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    27. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    1. Alali, Walid Y., 2009. "Solution Strategies of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models," MPRA Paper 116480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bernd Funovits, 2014. "Implications of Stochastic Singularity in Linear Multivariate Rational Expectations Models," Vienna Economics Papers vie1405, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
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    4. Michael Gail, 2003. "Habit Persistence in Consumption in a Sticky Price Model of the Business Cycle," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 111-03, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Craighead, William D., 2009. "Real rigidities and real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 135-147, February.
    6. Hernandez, Kolver, 2013. "A system reduction method to efficiently solve DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 571-576.
    7. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2018. "How Robust Are Popular Models of Nominal Frictions?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1299-1342, September.
    8. Mr. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2002. "Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel," IMF Working Papers 2002/141, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alok Johri & Amartya Lahiri, 2008. "Persistent Real Exchange Rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, McMaster University.
    10. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Mark Watson & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2019. "Sectoral and Aggregate Structural Change," 2019 Meeting Papers 532, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    13. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
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    23. Benjamin Keen, 2009. "Output, Inflation, and Interest Rates in an Estimated Optimizing Model of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 327-343, April.
    24. Paul Gomme & Paul Klein, 2009. "Second-order approximation of dynamic models without the use of tensors," Working Papers 09004, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2010.
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    26. Frank Hespeler, 2012. "On Boundary Conditions Within the Solution of Macroeconomic Dynamic Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 265-291, October.
    27. Sorge Marco M., 2020. "Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10, June.
    28. Johnston, Michael K. & King, Robert G. & Lie, Denny, 2014. "Straightforward approximate stochastic equilibria for nonlinear Rational Expectations models," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    29. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
    30. Komunjer, Ivana & Zhu, Yinchu, 2020. "Likelihood ratio testing in linear state space models: An application to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 561-586.
    31. David Andolfatto & Scott Hendry & Kevin Moran, 2007. "Are Inflation Expectations Rational?," Working Paper series 27_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    32. Rendahl, Pontus, 2017. "Linear Time Iteration," Economics Series 330, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    33. Richard Dennis, 2001. "Optimal policy in rational-expectations models: new solution algorithms," Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
    35. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Monetary policy and natural disasters in a DSGE model: how should the Fed have responded to Hurricane Katrina?," Working Papers 2007-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    36. Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan, 2002. "Optimal Simple Rules for the Conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0224, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    37. Linnemann, Ludger, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects of shocks to public employment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 252-267, June.
    38. Chadha, J.S. & Holly, S., 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve: An assessment of the Fit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0640, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    39. Lombardo, Giovanni & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Computing second-order-accurate solutions for rational expectation models using linear solution methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 515-530, February.
    40. Julieta Caunedo, 2014. "Aggregate Fluctuations and the Industry Structure of the US Economy," 2014 Meeting Papers 1194, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    41. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    42. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2011. "On the Solution of Markov-switching Rational Expectations Models," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 05/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    43. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2014. "Solvability of perturbation solutions in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 366-388.
    44. Kevin Moran, 2005. "Learning and the Welfare Implications of Changing Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche 0511, CIRPEE.
    45. Alok Johri, 2007. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007-04, McMaster University.
    46. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
    47. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions in DSGE Models," Dynare Working Papers 14, CEPREMAP.
    48. Michael Gail, 2001. "Persistency and Money Demand Distortions in a Stochastic DGE Model with Sticky Prices," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 96-01, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht, revised 14 Feb 2003.
    49. Hendrickson, Joshua, 2010. "An Overhaul of Fed Doctrine: Nominal Income and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 20346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    51. Alok Johri & Christopher Gunn, 2009. "News and knowledge capital," 2009 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    52. Frank Hespeler & Marco M. Sorge, 2019. "Solving Rational Expectations Models with Informational Subperiods: A Comment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1649-1654, April.
    53. Adnrew J. Clarke & Alok Johri, 2008. "Pro-cyclical Solow Residuals without Technology Shocks," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-02, McMaster University.
    54. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2012. "The new keynesian approach to dynamic general equilibrium modeling: Models, methods, and macroeconomic policy evaluation," IMFS Working Paper Series 52, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
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    7. Kathlyn Lucia & Stephanie Price & Edwin Wong & Richard Startz, 2008. "The Changing Relation Between the Canadian and U.S. Yield Curves," Working Papers UWEC-2008-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    8. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2015. "Forecasting aggregate retail sales: The case of South Africa," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 66-79.
    5. Are Oust & Simen N. Hansen & Tobias R. Pettrem, 2020. "Combining Property Price Predictions from Repeat Sales and Spatially Enhanced Hedonic Regressions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 183-207, August.
    6. Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2014. "Is there an optimal forecast combination?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 294-309.
    7. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    11. Naresh Bansal & Jack Strauss & Alireza Nasseh, 2015. "Can we consistently forecast a firm’s earnings? Using combination forecast methods to predict the EPS of Dow firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2005. "Forecasting employment growth in Missouri with many potentially relevant predictors: an analysis of forecast combining methods," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 97-112.
    14. Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2017. "Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 824-839.
    16. Matsypura, Dmytro & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2018. "Optimal selection of expert forecasts with integer programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-175.
    17. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    18. Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2020. "Learning from Forecast Errors: A New Approach to Forecast Combinations," Papers 2011.02077, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    19. Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Forecasting US Unemployment with Radial Basis Neural Networks, Kalman Filters and Support Vector Regressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 569-587, April.
    20. Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2010. "To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 534-570.
    21. Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2011. "Comparison of forecasting methods with an application to predicting excess equity premium," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1235-1246.
    22. Withers Christopher S. & Nadarajah Saralees, 2011. "Expansions for the risk of Stein type estimates for non-normal data," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 28(2), pages 81-95, May.
    23. Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
    24. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA forecast averaging - predicting day-ahead and intraday electricity prices," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/02, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    25. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2019. "Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1679-1691.
    26. Ji Wu & Xian Cheng & Stephen Shaoyi Liao, 2020. "Tourism forecast combination using the stochastic frontier analysis technique," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1086-1107, November.
    27. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    28. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2022. "Forecast combination for VARs in large N and T panels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 142-164.
    29. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2023. "LASSO principal component averaging: A fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1839-1852.
    30. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, "undated". "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    31. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Beating the Simple Average: Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Economic Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 20 Aug 2017.
    32. Ghysels, Eric & Ball, Ryan & Zhou, Huan, 2014. "Can we Automate Earnings Forecasts and Beat Analysts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    34. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Forecasting US employment growth using forecast combining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 75-93.
    35. Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque & Yaohao Peng & João Pedro Fontoura da Silva, 2022. "Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1701-1724, December.
    36. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
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    6. Eric Zivot, 1998. "Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions," Econometrics 9812001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynés & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre : une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications N° 2004-03, Sciences Po.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Denmark: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/380, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    4. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    6. Leonardo Vera, 2017. "The Distribution of Power and the Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in the United States: A Post-Keynesian Approach," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 265-285, June.
    7. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    8. Eric Heyer, 2011. "The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle: the case of tax reductions on overtime in France," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 364-379.
    9. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01069450, HAL.
    11. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5% en France ?," Post-Print hal-01017735, HAL.
    12. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Lee, Jim & Crowley, Patrick M., 2009. "Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland.
    14. Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr, 2016. "Entrepreneurship vulnerability to business cycle. A new methodology for identification pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical patterns of entrepreneurial activity," MPRA Paper 68793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2011. "A small New Keynesian state space model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 672-684, January.
    16. Hyeon-seung Huh & Hyun Lee & Namkyung Lee, 2009. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, NAIRU and monetary policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 131-151, September.
    17. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    18. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    19. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    20. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynés & Henri Sterdyniak, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03415930, HAL.
    21. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "Hysteresis and Unemployment: a Preliminary Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 721, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
    23. Victor Claar, 2006. "Is the NAIRU more useful in forecasting inflation than the natural rate of unemployment?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2179-2189.
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    25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "Inflation and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q I), pages 22-45.
    26. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1997. "Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7," Working Papers 9712, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    27. Gottschalk, Jan, 2002. "Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem: theory and evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," Post-Print hal-03460510, HAL.
    29. Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 1999. "Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 66(264), pages 663-692, octubre-d.
    30. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
    31. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps: Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
    33. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    34. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    36. T. D. Stanley, 2004. "Does unemployment hysteresis falsify the natural rate hypothesis? a meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 589-612, September.

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    5. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    2. Michael Kiley, 2010. "Output gaps," 2010 Meeting Papers 266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    5. Joyce, Theodore, 1990. "A time-series analysis of unemployment and health : The case of birth outcomes in New York city," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 419-436, February.
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    1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    2. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    3. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.

  74. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.

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    1. Brandon J. Bates & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Working Paper 84631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Richards, Timothy J. & Gao, Xiaoming & Patterson, Paul M., 1998. "Advertising and Retail Promotion of Washington Apples: A Structural Latent Variable Approach to Promotion Evaluation," Working Papers 28547, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    3. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Heaton, Chris & Oslington, Paul, 2010. "Micro vs macro explanations of post-war US unemployment movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 87-91, February.
    6. Möller, Joachim, 1988. "Time-varying coefficients in a simultaneous equation model: Theoretical concept and some simulation results," Discussion Papers, Series I 241, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    7. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Jose Maria Fanelli, 2004. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
    8. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
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    151. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    152. Drukker, David M. & Gates, Richard B., 2011. "State Space Methods in Stata," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 41(i10).
    153. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
    154. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models in gretl. The DFM package," gretl working papers 7, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    155. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman, 2008. "Formulating, Identifying and Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    156. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    157. Quagrainie, Kwamena K. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Loureiro, Maria L., 2001. "Reputation And State Commodity Promotion: The Case Of Washington Apples," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20592, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    158. Syed Badruddoza & Andrea C. Carlson & Jill J. McCluskey, 2022. "Long‐term dynamics of US organic milk, eggs, and yogurt premiums," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 45-72, January.
    159. Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013. "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper 287, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 01 Oct 2013.
    160. Peña, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 1997. "Eigenstructure of nonstationary factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6224, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    161. Haaparanta, Pertti & Kontulainen, Jarmo, 1989. "Real exchange rate as an unobservable variable," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/1989, Bank of Finland.
    162. Guangjian Zhang & Michael Browne & Anthony Ong & Sy Chow, 2014. "Analytic Standard Errors for Exploratory Process Factor Analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 444-469, July.
    163. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2010. "A Coincident Index, Common Factors, and Monthly Real GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 27-46, February.
    164. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    165. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    166. Gilbert, Paul D. & Meijer, Erik, 2005. "Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money," Research Report 05F10, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    167. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    168. Manuel Agosin Trumper & Juan Díaz Maureira, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors," Working Papers wp365, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    169. Martín Almuzara & Dante Amengual & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Normality tests for latent variables," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 981-1017, July.
    170. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    171. Mario Mazzocchi & Davide Delle Monache & Alexandra Lobb, 2006. "A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1677-1688.
    172. Hiranya Nath, 2004. "Relative importance of sectoral and aggregate sources of price changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1781-1796.
    173. Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Germany, Austria and Other oecd-Countries. Some Preliminary Findings," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(5), pages 1079-1116.
    174. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    175. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Nikita E. German, 2018. "Forecasting Current GDP Dynamics With Google Search Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 83-94, December.
    176. Bates, David S., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 229-269, December.
    177. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    178. Dordonnat, Virginie & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2012. "Dynamic factors in periodic time-varying regressions with an application to hourly electricity load modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3134-3152.
    179. François Bouton & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002. "Conjonctures sectorielles et prévision à court terme de l'activité : l'apport de l'enquête de conjoncture dans les services," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 35-68.
    180. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    181. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2001. "Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-01-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    182. Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    183. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    184. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Chapters

  1. Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 182-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.
    2. Boer, Lukas & Pescatori, Andrea & Stuermer, Martin, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," MPRA Paper 110364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.

  2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    4. Gent Bajraj & Jorge Lorca & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2022. "On Foreign Drivers of EMEs Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 951, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2019. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR Models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Papers 2111.00450, arXiv.org.
    7. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Papers No 06/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    9. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2017. "The effects of US monetary policy shocks: Applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model," Discussion Papers 08/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    11. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    12. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    13. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Masud Alam, 2021. "Time Varying Risk in U.S. Housing Sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts Equity Return," Papers 2107.10455, arXiv.org.
    15. Candelon, Bertrand & Luisi , Angelo & Roccazzella, Francesco, 2021. "Fragmentation in the European Monetary Union: Is it really over?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021015, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    16. Süssmuth, Bernd & Irmen, Andreas & Heer, Burkhard, 2020. "Taxation, Automation Capital, and the Functional Income Distribution," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2022. "On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 295-314, January.
    19. Georgios Karras, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from a Sample of OECD Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(3), pages 111-138, July-Sept.
    20. Sven Otto & Nazarii Salish, 2022. "Approximate Factor Models for Functional Time Series," Papers 2201.02532, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    21. Rancière, Romain & Fraiberger, Samuel & , & Puy, Damien, 2018. "Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 13366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    23. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2020. "Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models," Working Papers 20-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    24. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
    25. Matthew Read, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign‐restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 329-358, September.
    26. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    27. Lastunen, Jesse & Richiardi, Matteo, 2023. "Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    28. Matteo Barigozzi & Daniele Massacci, 2022. "Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models," Papers 2210.09828, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    29. Daniel A. Dias & João B. Duarte, 2019. "Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 673-687, August.
    30. Jonas Krampe & Efstathios Paparoditis, 2021. "Sparsity concepts and estimation procedures for high‐dimensional vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5-6), pages 554-579, September.
    31. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel S. Wochner, 2021. "State‐dependent evaluation of predictive ability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 547-574, April.
    32. Esposti, Roberto, 2021. "On the long-term common movement of resource and commodity prices.A methodological proposal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    33. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc & Soccorsi, Stefano & von Sachs, Rainer, 2021. "Time-varying general dynamic factor models and the measurement of financial connectedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 324-343.
    34. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    35. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Brian D. O. Anderson & Manfred Deistler & Marco Lippi, 2022. "Linear System Challenges of Dynamic Factor Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, December.
    37. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    38. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Irmen & Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "Explaining the Decline in the US Labor Share: Taxation and Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9775, CESifo.
    39. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    40. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2018. "Practical Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 24643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    42. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    43. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," Working Papers 22-08, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    44. Dario Caldara & Michele Cavallo & Matteo Iacoviello, 2016. "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1173, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," MPRA Paper 100164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Business Cycle Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 7468, CESifo.
    48. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19," Papers 2103.02732, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    49. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    50. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Ping Wu, 2023. "Incorporating Short Data into Large Mixed-Frequency VARs for Regional Nowcasting," Working Papers 2311, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    51. Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Hélène Rey & Ragnar Juelsrud, 2020. "Granular credit risk," Working Paper 2020/15, Norges Bank.
    52. João B. Duarte & Nuno Pereira, 2023. "The effect of monetary policy on household consumption expenditures in Portugal: A decomposition of the transmission channel," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(2), pages 149-172, May.
    53. Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar, 2020. "Including news data in forecasting macro economic performance of China," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 585-611, December.
    55. Saskia ter Ellen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media," Working Papers No 06/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    56. Alexander Tishin, 2019. "Monetary Policy Surprises in Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 48-70, December.
    57. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Optimal policy perturbations," Economics Working Papers 1716, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    58. Rüdiger Bachmann & Peter Zorn, 2013. "What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 18990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Fosten, Jack, 2019. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: A short-to-medium run perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 415-429.
    61. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
    62. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    63. Kronen Dominik & Belke Ansgar, 2017. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 93-116, August.
    64. Giacomini, Raffaella & Kitagawa, Toru & Read, Matthew, 2020. "Robust Bayesian Inference in Proxy SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 14626, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    65. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using approximate factor models with outliers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 267-291.
    66. Huw Dixon & Joshy Easaw & Saeed Heravi, 2020. "Forecasting inflation gap persistence: Do financial sector professionals differ from nonfinancial sector ones?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, July.
    67. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Staff Working Papers 22-10, Bank of Canada.
    68. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Joint estimation of multiple network Granger causal models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 120-133.
    69. Martin Bruns, 2019. "Proxy VAR Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1831, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    70. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2019. "Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data," KOF Working papers 19-463, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    71. De, Kuhelika & Compton, Ryan A. & Giedeman, Daniel C., 2022. "Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    72. Matthew Read, 2021. "Algorithms for Inference in SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions," Papers 2109.10676, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    73. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2019. "A Generalized Factor Model with Local Factors," Working Papers 19-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    74. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
    75. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    76. Johannes Huber, 2022. "An Augmented Steady-State Kalman Filter to Evaluate the Likelihood of Linear and Time-Invariant State-Space Models," Discussion Paper Series 343, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    77. Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
    78. Glocker, Christian & Sestieri, Giulia & Towbin, Pascal, 2019. "Time-varying government spending multipliers in the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    79. Pollak, Andreas, 2022. "A Unified Theory of Growth, Cycles and Unemployment - Part II: Business Cycles and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 117769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    80. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    81. Soojin Jo & Lilia Karnizova, 2021. "Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions," Staff Working Papers 21-47, Bank of Canada.
    82. Linton, O. B. & Tang, H. & Wu, J., 2022. "A Structural Dynamic Factor Model for Daily Global Stock Market Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2237, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    83. Bonsoo Koo & Benjamin Wong & Ze-Yu Zhong, 2023. "Disentangling Structural Breaks in High Dimensional Factor Models," CAMA Working Papers 2023-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    84. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2022. "Monetary shock measurement and stock markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 685-706, March.
    85. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Dr. Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    86. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    87. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    88. Freyaldenhoven, Simon, 2022. "Factor models with local factors — Determining the number of relevant factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 80-102.
    89. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
    90. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    91. Dominik Bertsche & Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2018. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-08, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    92. Kapinos, Pavel & Kishor, N. Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Dynamic comovement among banks, systemic risk, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    93. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    94. De Visscher, Stef & Eberhardt, Markus & Everaert, Gerdie, 2020. "Estimating and testing the multicountry endogenous growth model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    95. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    96. Moneta, Alessio & Pallante, Gianluca, 2022. "Identification of Structural VAR Models via Independent Component Analysis: A Performance Evaluation Study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    97. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    98. Jin, Sainan & Miao, Ke & Su, Liangjun, 2021. "On factor models with random missing: EM estimation, inference, and cross validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 745-777.
    99. Olayinka Oyekola, 2022. "How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Foreign Disturbances?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-33, April.
    100. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    101. Esther Ruiz & Pilar Poncela, 2022. "Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: Kalman Filter Versus Principal Components," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 121-231, November.
    102. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    213. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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    216. Hongwei Zhang & Qiang He & Ben Jacobsen & Fuwei Jiang, 2020. "Forecasting stock returns with model uncertainty and parameter instability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 629-644, August.
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    219. Ng, Serena, 2013. "Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 752-789, Elsevier.
    220. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
    221. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    222. Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013. "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper 287, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 01 Oct 2013.
    223. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
    224. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2009. "Do coincident indicators have one-factor structure?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May.
    225. Macias, Paweł & Stelmasiak, Damian & Szafranek, Karol, 2023. "Nowcasting food inflation with a massive amount of online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 809-826.
    226. Cheng, Mingmian & Swanson, Norman R. & Yang, Xiye, 2021. "Forecasting volatility using double shrinkage methods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 46-61.
    227. IIBOSHI Hirokuni & MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & NISHIYAMA Shin-Ichi, 2014. "Sources of the Great Recession：A Bayesian Approach of a Data-Rich DSGE model with Time-Varying Volatility Shocks," ESRI Discussion paper series 313, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    228. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    229. Steven D. Silver, 2016. "A QUAIDS Model of Need-Based Structure in U.S. Personal Consumption 2006–2012," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 303-323, September.
    230. Rachida Ouysse, 2017. "Constrained principal components estimation of large approximate factor models," Discussion Papers 2017-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    231. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    232. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    233. Marcella Lucchetta & Mr. Gianni De Nicolo, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks: Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/058, International Monetary Fund.
    234. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "How to Estimate Beta?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-617, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    235. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era," Working Papers 20-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 05 Jan 2022.
    236. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "Estimating beta: Forecast adjustments and the impact of stock characteristics for a broad cross-section," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 91-118.
    237. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Zerom, Dawit, 2019. "Semiparametric quantile averaging in the presence of high-dimensional predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 891-909.
    238. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    239. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2020. "Distilling Large Information Sets to Forecast Commodity Returns: Automatic Variable Selection or HiddenMarkov Models?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20140, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    240. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
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    248. Elliott, Graham & Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2015. "Complete subset regressions with large-dimensional sets of predictors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 86-110.
    249. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    250. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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    253. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    254. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    255. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "Supervision in Factor Models Using a Large Number of Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2015-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    256. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
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    258. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Nataša Erjavec & Petar Soriæ & Mirjana Èižmešija, 2016. "Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia: Is economic sentiment the missing link?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 555-579.
    4. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19285, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    8. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
    9. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
    11. Michael DeStefano, 2004. "Stock Returns and the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 527-547, November.
    12. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    13. T.P.Koirala, Ph.D., 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters of Inflation Model in Nepal: State Space Modeling," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 66-77, October.
    14. Galin Petrov Stefanov, 2020. "Mundel Optimality of the Bulgarian Accession to the Euro Area," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 3, pages 297-315.
    15. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Chris Birchenhall & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
    17. AMMOURI, Bilel & TOUMI, Hassen & Zitouna, Habib, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model," MPRA Paper 65514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    19. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
    20. Christian Weber, 1996. "A note on unemployment rates and the paper-bill spread," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 49-51.
    21. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2009. "Common fluctuations in OECD budget balances," Working Papers 2009-055, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    23. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature: forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    24. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    25. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    26. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski, 2014. "Leading composite index produced by Finance Think: Forecasting power reassessed," Finance Think Policy Studies 2014-12/2, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    27. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    28. Allan Layton & Masaki Katsuura, 2001. "A new turning point signalling system using the Markov switching model with application to Japan, the USA and Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 59-70.
    29. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Abdullah Tahir & Jameel Ahmed & Waqas Ahmed, 2018. "Robust Quarterization of GDP and Determination of Business Cycle Dates for IGC Partner Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 97, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    31. Moradi, Alireza, 2016. "Modeling Business Cycle Fluctuations through Markov Switching VAR:An Application to Iran," MPRA Paper 73608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20307, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    33. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    34. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
    35. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
    36. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    37. Arie Marom & Yigal Menashe & Tanya Suchoy, 2003. "The State-of-The-Economy Index and The probability of Recession: The Markov Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.05, Bank of Israel.
    38. Christos Kallandranis & Socrates Karidis, 2014. "Assessing the Effect of the Consumer-Voter Sentiment on Tiebout-Like Migration: The EU 27 Case," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 31-55, April.
    39. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    40. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    41. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Working Papers 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    42. Marfatia Hardik A., 2021. "Modeling House Price Synchronization across the U.S. States and their Time-Varying Macroeconomic Linkages," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 73-117, January.
    43. Nicolau, João, 2016. "Structural change test in duration of bull and bear markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 64-67.
    44. Orbe Lizundia, Jesús María & Ferreira García, María Eva & Núñez Antón, Vicente Alfredo, 2001. "Analysis of Length of Time Spent in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    45. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    46. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2005. "Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-081/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    47. Tao Chen & Liang Wu & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2013. "On the Use of International Commodity Futures Spread for Forecasting China's Net Imports of Commodities," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 861-879, July.
    48. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
    49. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
    50. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    51. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    52. Heikki Kauppi, 2019. "Recession Prediction with OptimalUse of Leading Indicators," Discussion Papers 125, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    53. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    54. Richard Zhe Wang & Menghistu Sallehu, 2014. "The Hidden Message in AFS Securitites of US Banks," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 59-70.
    55. Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models," Kiel Working Papers 944, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    56. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    57. Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
    58. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    59. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Vector autoregressions and cointegration," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 47, pages 2843-2915, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Granger, C.W.J. & Watson, Mark W., 1984. "Time series and spectral methods in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 979-1022, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Steel, Mark F. J. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1991. "Bayesian multivariate exogeneity analysis : An application to a UK money demand equation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 239-274.
    2. Carstensen, Kai & Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12170, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Mohammad Ahmed, 1992. "Pakistan's Exchange Rate Policy: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 49-74.
    4. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "On the Typical Spectral Shape of an Economic Variable," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423.
    5. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "Optimal Time Interval Selection in Long-Run Correlation Estimation," Econometrics 0511017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Nov 2005.
    6. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    7. Carlos A. Medel, 2014. "The typical spectral shape of an economic variable: a visual guide," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 1017-1024, September.
    8. Carlos Medel, 2014. "The Typical Spectral Shape of An Economic Variable: A Visual Guide with 100 Examples," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 719, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Bruno Eeckels & George Filis & Costas Leon, 2012. "Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece: Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 817-834, August.
    10. Leon, Costas & Eeckels, Bruno, 2009. "A Dynamic Correlation Approach of the Swiss Tourism Income," MPRA Paper 15215, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Books

  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Russell, Jeffrey & Watson, Mark (ed.), 2010. "Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199549498.

    Cited by:

    1. Jarno Talponen, 2018. "Matching distributions: Recovery of implied physical densities from option prices," Papers 1803.03996, arXiv.org.
    2. Wang, Chengyang & Nishiyama, Yoshihiko, 2015. "Volatility forecast of stock indices by model averaging using high-frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 324-337.
    3. Axel A. Araneda, 2021. "Asset volatility forecasting:The optimal decay parameter in the EWMA model," Papers 2105.14382, arXiv.org.
    4. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of International REITs: The Role of Realized Skewness and Realized Kurtosis," Working Papers 202114, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2019. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodities," MPRA Paper 96267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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