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The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area

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Author Info
Andrea Nobili () (Bank of Italy)
Stefano Neri () (Bank of Italy)
Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro-area using a two-country structural VAR with no exogeneity assumption. The analysis reveals the following results. First, in response to an unexpected increase in the Federal funds rate, the euro immediately depreciates with respect to the dollar and then appreciates in line with the prediction of the uncovered interest parity condition. Second, there is evidence of a temporary positive spillover to euro-area output in the short run, while a negative effect emerges in the medium run. Third, the contribution of the trade balance channel to the transmission of monetary shocks is negligible. Finally, the degree of pass-through of the exchange rate changes onto euro-area consumer prices is incomplete and small in the short run, while it is close to zero in the medium run.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 606.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_606_06

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Related research
Keywords: VAR; Monetary Policy; International transmission;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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