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Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account

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Marcel Fratzscher
Luciana Juvenal
Lucio Sarno

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Abstract

This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 32% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been much less relevant, explaining less than 7% and exerting a more temporary effect on the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that sizeable exchange rate movements may not necessarily be a key element of an adjustment of today's large current account imbalances, and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a more potent source of adjustment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-031.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-031

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Keywords: Asset pricing ; Foreign exchange rates ; Balance of trade;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: the Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6660, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Nikolaus Siegfried & Emilia Simeonova & Cristina Vespro, 2007. "Choice of currency in bond issuance and the international role of currencies," Working Paper Series 814, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Antje Berndt & Iulian Obreja, 2007. "The pricing of risk in European credit and corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 805, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2009. "Exchange-Rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," Kiel Working Papers 1488, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Müller & Almut Scholl, 2008. "How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/22, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lucas Papademos, 2007. "The Effects of Globalization on Inflation, Liquidity and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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