Normalization, probability distribution, and impulse responses
AbstractWhen impulse responses in dynamic multivariate models such as identified VARs are given economic interpretations, it is important that reliable statistical inferences be provided. Before probability assessments are provided, however, the model must be normalized. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, this paper argues that normalization, a rule of reversing signs of coefficients in equations in a particular way, could considerably affect the shape of the likelihood and thus probability bands for impulse responses. A new concept called ML distance normalization is introduced to avoid distorting the shape of the likelihood. Moreover, this paper develops a Monte Carlo simulation technique for implementing ML distance normalization.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 97-11.
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2000. "Likelihood-preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Working Paper 2000-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998.
"Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models,"
98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Andrzej Kociêcki, 2003. "On Priors for Impulse Responses in Bayesian Structural VAR Models," Econometrics 0307006, EconWPA.
- Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000.
"Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico,"
2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Del Negro, Marco & Obiols-Homs, Francesc, 2001. "Has Monetary Policy Been so Bad that It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 404-33, May.
- Marco del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2001. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? The case of Mexico," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 404-439.
- massimo franchi, 2002. "A Non-Causal Identification Scheme for Vector Autoregressions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 290, Society for Computational Economics.
- Besnik Fetai, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Transition Economies: The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1014, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Gert Peersman, 2005.
"What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
- Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England.
- Peersman, Gert, 2003. "What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Andrea Nobili & Stefano Neri, 2006. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2000. "A Gibbs simulator for restricted VAR models," Working Paper 2000-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.