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Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting. This puzzling result has developed into a “styled facts†to be reckoned with in policy modelling. However, many of these studies, in particular those using VARs, have disregarded the strong contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by placing zero restriction on them. By instead imposing a long-run neutrality restriction on the real exchange, thereby allowing the interest rate and the exchange rate to react simultaneously to any news, I find that the puzzles disappear. In particular, a contractionary monetary policy shock has a strong effect on the exchange rate that appreciates on impact. The maximum effect occurs immediately, and the exchange rate thereafter gradually depreciates to baseline, consistent with the Dornbusch overshooting hypothesis and with few exceptions consistent with UIP.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 45.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:45

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Keywords: Dornbusch overshooting; VAR; monetary policy; exchange rate puzzle; identification.;

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Cited by:
  1. Hoffmann, Mathias & Søndergaard, Jens & Westelius, Niklas J., 2007. "The timing and magnitude of exchange rate overshooting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Working Paper 2005/16, Norges Bank.
  3. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
  4. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

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