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Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar

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  • Akram, Q. Farooq

Abstract

This paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices. We investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates. We analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil, food, metals and industrial raw materials. The analysis is based on structural VAR models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1-2007q4. Our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates. Moreover, oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes. The evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices. Shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 838-851

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:838-851

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Commodity prices Interest rates Exchange rates VAR models;

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  5. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
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  7. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
  8. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  13. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  14. Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
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