Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar
AbstractThis paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices. We investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates. We analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil, food, metals and industrial raw materials. The analysis is based on structural VAR models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1-2007q4. Our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates. Moreover, oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes. The evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices. Shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Commodity prices Interest rates Exchange rates VAR models;
Other versions of this item:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008.
"Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004.
"Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005.
"Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle,"
2005/11, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Memorandum 26/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hilde C. BjÃ¸rnland, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 45, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CDMA Working Paper Series 200403, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006.
"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
- Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.