This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Paul Cashin
Luis Felipe Céspedes
Ratna Sahay

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity-exporting countries over 1980-2002. Evidence of a longrun relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about onethird of the commodity-exporting countries. The long-run real exchange rate of these ‘commodity currencies’ is not constant (as would be implied by purchasing power parity-based models) but is time-varying, being dependent on movements in the real price of commodity exports.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc236.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Claudio Sepulveda)
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 236.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:236

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Allan W. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 8909, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques-.
    Other versions:
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," NBER Working Papers 7462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, vol. 47(2), pages 2. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    Other versions:
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    Other versions:
  23. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  25. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  26. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
  27. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    Other versions:
  28. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Y.Chen & K. Rogoff, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 76, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  31. Boyd, Derick & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity: Econometric Issues and an Application to Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(3), pages 287-303, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, vol. 49(2), pages 2. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  37. Bidarkota, Prasad & Crucini, Mario J, 2000. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 647-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  38. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  40. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jaewoo Lee & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elena Loukoianova & Plamen Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2006. "Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow, or Not at All?," IMF Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, vol. 53(1), pages 5. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Maurizio Michael Habib & Margarita Manolova Kalamova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Miguel Fuentes, 2007. "Dollarization of Debt Contracts: Evidence from Chilean Firms," Documentos de Trabajo 326, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2006-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi., 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hali Edison & Paul Cashin & Hong Liang, 2006. "Foreign exchange intervention and the Australian dollar: has it mattered?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 155-171. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp05-29, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Boileau Loko & Kangni Kpodar & Oumar Diallo, 2007. "Buoyant Capital Spending and Worries over Real Appreciation: Cold Facts from Algeria," IMF Working Papers 07/286, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Gustavo Ramirez, 2007. "Competitiveness in the CFA Franc Zone," IMF Working Papers 07/212, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Korhonen, Iikka & Juurikkala, Tuuli, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-dependent countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  15. Luís Antonio Ahumada & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Desarrollo del mercado de derivados cambiarios en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(1), pages 35-58, June. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2008-4-27.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.