Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?

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Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?

Author Info

Denis Kwiatkowski (Central Michigan University)
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Peter Schmidt (Michigan State University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The standard conclusion that is drawn from this empirical evidence is that many or most aggregate economic time series contain a unit root. However, it is important to note that in this empirical work the unit root is set up as the null hypothesis testing is carried out ensures that the null hypothesis is accepted unless there is strong evidence against it. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the common failure to reject a unit root is simply that most economic time series are not very informative about whether or not there is a unit root; or, equivalently, that standard unit root tests are not very powerful against relevant alternatives.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 979.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics, 54, 1992
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:979

Note: CFP 827.
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Article
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
Other versions:
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 1987. [Downloadable!]
Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1989. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 933, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 1986. [Downloadable!]
Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 819R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 1987. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Aug 1987. [Downloadable!]
Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Tanaka, Katsuto, 1983. "Non-Normality of the Lagrange Multiplier Statistic for Testing the Constancy of Regression Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1577-82, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jul 1989. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Busetti, Fabio & Harvey, Andrew, 2007. "Testing For Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 72-87, September. [Downloadable!]
Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Other versions:
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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