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Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression

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  • Phillips, Peter C B

Abstract

This paper provides a general framework which makes it possible to study the asymptotic behavior of FM regression in models with I(1) and I(0) regressors, models with unit roots, and models with only stationary regressors. This framework enables us to consider the use of FM regression in the context of vector autoregressions with some unit roots and some cointegrating relations. The resulting FM-VAR regressions are shown to produce optimal estimates of the cointegration space without prior knowledge of the number of unit roots in the system, without pretesting to determine the dimension of the cointegration space and without the use of restricted regression techniques like reduced rank regression. The paper also develops an asymptotic theory for inference. It is shown that conventional chi-squared critical values can be used to construct valid (but conservative) asymptotic tests in quite general FM time series regression. Copyright 1995 by The Econometric Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 63 (1995)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1023-78

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:63:y:1995:i:5:p:1023-78

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  1. Bowden,Roger J. & Turkington,Darrell A., 1990. "Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385824, October.
  2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Hyper-Consistent Estimation of a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1040, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  8. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
  12. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unidentified Components in Reduced Rank Regression Estimation of ECM's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1003, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  15. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
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