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Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof

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Author Info

  • Robert A. Amano

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Simon van Norden

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

Simulation evidence is presented on the finite sample properties of two tests for stationarity recently proposed by Kwiatkowski, Phillips and Schmidt (1991) and Park (1990). Unlike earlier unit-root tests, these test the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, thereby reversing the usual burden of proof. We also examine the consequenes of using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips and Schmidt test in conjuction with a standard unit-root test. These results suggest that the frequency of incorrect conclusions may be decreased relative to the application of only standard unit-root tests. Also, such a joint testing procedure may in some cases permit researchers to be more confident about their tests' results.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/9502/9502005.ps.gz
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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/9502/9502005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9502005.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 08 Feb 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502005

Note: 20 pages, Postscript, includes tables. File compressed in a single Info-zip archive, then uuencoded.
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  1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  3. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  5. Han, H.L. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "A Consistent Test for the Null of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root," RCER Working Papers 304, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: de rebus prioribus semper est disputandum," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 986, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  10. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
  12. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
  14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  15. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  16. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
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