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Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression

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Abstract

This paper proposes some new tests for detecting the presence of a unit root in quite general time series models. Our approach is nonparametric with respect to nuisance parameters and thereby allows for a very wide class of weakly dependent and possibly heterogeneously distributed data. The tests accommodate models with a fitted drift and a time trend so that they may be used to discriminate between unit root nonstationarity and stationarity about a deterministic trend. The limiting distributions of the statistics are obtained under both the unit root null and a sequence of local alternatives. The latter noncentral distribution theory yields local asymptotic power functions for the tests and facilitates comparisons with alternative procedures due to Dickey and Fuller. Some simulations are reported which provide evidence on the performance of the new tests in finite samples.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d07b/d0795-r.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 795R.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 1986
Date of revision: Sep 1987
Publication status: Published in Biometrika (1988), 75(2): 335-346
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:795r

Note: CFP 706.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Related research

Keywords: Brownian motion; noncentral distributions; weak convergence; nonparametric tests;

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References

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  1. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
  2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  5. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
  6. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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