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Consumption and Fractional Differencing: Old and New Anomalies

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

This paper calculates the stochastic properties of consumption when income follows a fractional stochastic process, and shows how this may explain both the excess sensitivity and the excess smoothness paradoxes. It then uses a recently developed improvement of the Rescaled Range Statistic to find long term memory in consumption. The remaining sections undertake Monte Carlo simulations to assess the finite sample size and power of the test, conduct cross country comparisons (France, Canada, U.K.), and provides a possible explanation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 20-89.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:20-89

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  1. Quah, Danny, 1990. "Permanent and Transitory Movements in Labor Income: An Explanation for "Excess Smoothness" in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 449-75, June.
  2. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, . "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February.
  4. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  7. Campbell, John & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Scholarly Articles 3221494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin Hassett, 1989. "Corporate Savings and Shareholder Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "The Insensitivity of Consumption to News About Income," NBER Working Papers 2252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  13. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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Cited by:
  1. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  2. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Working Papers 1061, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Christelle Lecourt, 2000. "Dépendance de court et de long terme des rendements de taux de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 127-137.
  4. Arteche, J. & Orbe, J., 2005. "Bootstrapping the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 79-85, January.

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