The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle
AbstractThis paper examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, and focuses on the persistence of economic shocks. We develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-term dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. We derive the re-lation between properties of fractionally integrated macroeconomic time series and those of microeconomic data, and discuss how fiscal policy may alter their stochastic behavior. To implement these results empirically, we employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-term dependence, and is applied to quarterly and annual real GNP to determine the sources and nature of long-term dependence in the business cycle.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 05-89.
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- Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, . "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "The Sources and Nature of Long-term Memory in the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1991. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in the business cycle," Working Paper 9116, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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