(Fractional) Beta Convergence
AbstractUnit roots in output, an exponential 2% rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that can not go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate shocks might vanish at an hyperbolic rather than at an exponential rate. This implies that the level of output can exhibit long memory and that standard tests fail to reject the null of a unit root despite mean reversion. Exploiting secular time series properties of GDP, we conclude that traditional approaches to test for uniform (conditional and unconditional) convergence suit first step approximation. We show both theoretically and empirically how the uniform 2% rate of convergence repeatedly found in the empirical literature is the outcome of an underlying parameter of fractional integration strictly between 0.5 and 1. This is consistent with both time series and cross-sectional evidence recently produced.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros- in its series Papers with number 9803.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros. Casado del Alisal, 5-28014 Madrid, Spain.
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
More information through EDIRC
ECONOMETRICS ; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ; TESTING;
Other versions of this item:
- Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Papers 383, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
- Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996.
"Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1992.
"The uncertain unit root in real GNP,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
193, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995.
"Convergence in International Output,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
- Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983.
"Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Quah, Danny, 1993.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988.
"Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-54, November.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 788, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
- den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "Convergence in stochastic growth models The importance of understanding why income levels differ," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 65-82, February.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.