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What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series?

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Danny Quah

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Abstract

It is often argued that the presence of a unit root in aggregate output implies that there is no "business cycle": the economy does not return to trend following a disturbance. This paper makes this notion precise, but then develops a simple aggregative model where this relation is contradicted. In the model output both has a unit root, and displays repeated short-run fluctuations around a deterministic trend. Some summary statistical evidence is presented that suggests the phenomena described in the paper is not without empirical basis.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2450.

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Date of creation: Nov 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2450

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 788, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Does the business cycle have duration memory?," Special Studies Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. F. Goerlich, 1991. "Persistencia en las fluctuaciones económicas: evidencia para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 193-202, January. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kenneth D. West, 1989. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1991. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in the business cycle," Working Paper 9116, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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