(Fractional) Beta Convergence
AbstractUnit roots in output, an exponential 2 per cent rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that cannot go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate shocks might vanish at a hyperbolic rather than at an exponential rate. This implies that the level of output can exhibit long memory and that standard tests fail to reject the null of a unit root despite mean reversion. Exploiting secular time series properties GDP, we conclude that traditional approaches to test for uniform (conditional and unconditional) convergence suit first step approximation. We show both theoretically and empirically how the uniform 2 per cent rate of convergence repeatedly found in the empirical literature is the outcome of an underlying parameter of fractional integration strictly between 1/2 and 1. This is consistent with both time series and cross-sectional evidence recently produced.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 383.
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
growth model; convergence; long memory; aggregation;
Other versions of this item:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
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