(Fractional) Beta Convergence
AbstractUnit roots in output, an exponential 2 per cent rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that cannot go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate shocks might vanish at a hyperbolic rather than at an exponential rate. This implies that the level of output can exhibit long memory and that standard tests fail to reject the null of a unit root despite mean reversion. Exploiting secular time series properties GDP, we conclude that traditional approaches to test for uniform (conditional and unconditional) convergence suit first step approximation. We show both theoretically and empirically how the uniform 2 per cent rate of convergence repeatedly found in the empirical literature is the outcome of an underlying parameter of fractional integration strictly between 1/2 and 1. This is consistent with both time series and cross-sectional evidence recently produced.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 383.
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
growth model; convergence; long memory; aggregation;
Other versions of this item:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Quah, Danny, 1993.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993.
"Convergence in International Output,"
93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "Convergence in stochastic growth models The importance of understanding why income levels differ," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 65-82, February.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994.
"Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1995.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993.
"The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
788, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-54, November.
- Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983.
"Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
- Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
- Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.