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Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models

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  • Koop, Gary
  • Ley, Eduardo
  • Osiewalski, Jacek
  • Steel, Mark F. J.

Abstract

This paper provides a Bayesian analysis of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models. We discuss in detail inference on impulse responses, and show how Bayesian methods can be used to (i) test ARFIMA models against ARIMA alternatives, and (ii) take model uncertainty into account when making inferences on quantities of interest. Our methods are then used to investigate the persistence properties of real U.S. GNP.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 76 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Pages: 149-169

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:76:y:1997:i:1-2:p:149-169

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
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  6. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
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  13. Koop, Gary, 1991. "Intertemporal Properties of Real Output: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 253-65, July.
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  16. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
  17. Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1993. "Robust bayesian inference in elliptical regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 345-363.
  18. Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "Posterior Properties of Long-Run Impulse Responses," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 489-92, October.
  19. Baillie, R.T. & Chung, C,F. & Tieslau, M.A., 1992. "The Long Memory and Variability of Inflation : A Reappraisal of the Friedman Hypothesis," Papers 9246, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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  22. Erhard Reschenhofer & Benedikt M. Pötscher & Michael A. Hauser, 1999. "Measuring persistence in aggregate output: ARMA models, fractionally integrated ARMA models and nonparametric procedures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 243-269.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Iglesias, Pilar & Jorquera, Hector & Palma, Wilfredo, 2006. "Data analysis using regression models with missing observations and long-memory: an application study," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2028-2043, April.
  3. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
  4. S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2010. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: a Markov switching approach," Working Papers 694, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  5. Fuyu Yang, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of Deterministic Time Trend and Changes in Persistence Using a Generalised Stochastic Unit Root Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  6. Epaminondas Panas & Vassilia Ninni, 2010. "The Distribution of London Metal Exchange Prices: A Test of the Fractal Market Hypothesis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 192-210.
  7. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  8. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Li, Yushu, 2013. "How Flexible are the Inflation Targets? A Bayesian MCMC Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter in a State Space Model," Working Papers 2013:38, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  9. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries:a Fractionally Integrated Approach," Working Papers 259, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  10. M. Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 875-894.
  11. O. Mikhail & C. J. Eberwein & J. Handa, 2006. "Estimating persistence in Canadian unemployment: evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1809-1819.
  12. Martin, Vance L. & Wilkins, Nigel P., 1999. "Indirect estimation of ARFIMA and VARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 149-175, November.
  13. Panas, E., 2001. "Long memory and chaotic models of prices on the London Metal Exchange," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 235-246, December.
  14. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "Testing and Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment," Econometrics 0311004, EconWPA.

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