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The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach

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Author Info
Gadea, Maria
Mayoral, Laura

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Abstract

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate, and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of twenty-one OECD countries which are modeled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although nonpermanent) in most postindustrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 815.

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Date of creation: 21 Dec 2005
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Central Banking Number 1.Volume 2(2006): pp. 51-104
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:815

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G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  2. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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