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Intertemporal Properties of Real Output: A Bayesian Analysis

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  • Koop, Gary

Abstract

This paper analyzes the univariate properties of real output and extends traditional analyzes in three ways: (1) a Bayesian approach is taken; (2) extensive cross-country comparisons are performed; and (3) a model is developed which allows for the possibility that real output may be fractionally integrated. In addition, standard comparisons between ARIMA and deterministic trend models are made. The class of fractionally integrated processes, while possessing certain properties useful for generalization of ARIMA models, has received relatively little attention in the macroeconomic literature. Such models are valuable since they allow for greater flexibility in estimating the long-run persistence of shocks than do standard models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 9 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 253-65

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:9:y:1991:i:3:p:253-65

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Cited by:
  1. Gary Koop & Eduardo Ley & Jacek Osiewalski & Mark F.J. Steel, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Econometrics 9505001, EconWPA, revised 11 Jul 1995.
  2. Charley Xia and William Griffiths, 2012. "Bayesian Unit Root Testing: The Effect Of Choice Of Prior On Test Outcomes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1152, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  4. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.

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